AP Poll Prediction: Projecting Top 25 ranking after Week 4 of college football

Now four weeks into the season we’re beginning to see some clear leaders emerge in college football. There have been plenty of upsets in the AP Top 25 over the last few weeks.

That said, Saturday was a quieter bit of action in terms of the top 25. Outside of ranked matchups between Illinois and Indiana, Texas Tech and Utah, and Auburn and Oklahoma there wasn’t a ton of red meat on the bone this week.

Still, there was a lot to digest. Today, On3 stops to break down some of the changes anticipated in this week’s AP Top 25. Let’s dig into our projections for the new edition of the top college football poll below.

RESULT: BYE WEEK
Ohio State was on a bye week after cruising against non-conference opponents in back-to-back weeks. Of course, those two patsies came after a season opener against Texas, one in which Ohio State came out on top.

The schedule remains quite navigable for the Buckeyes going forward. A road trip to Washington next week should provide a stiffer test, as should a trip to Illinois two weeks later. But it might not be until November, when Penn State comes to town, that Ohio State is really pushed to the limits.

RESULT: BYE WEEK
Penn State was also on a bye this week, and in a very similar setup as Ohio State in that it came after a handful of cupcakes. Penn State hasn’t been tested at all this season, with three non-conference games against hapless opponents.

That changes in a hurry next week, with Oregon headed to Happy Valley for a huge showdown. The winner of that will establish themselves at the top of the Big Ten pecking order early in the season, though there will still be plenty of football left to be played.

RESULT: 56-10 win vs. Southeastern Louisiana
After knocking off Florida last week, LSU got a bit of a breather with a game against in-state foe Southeastern Louisiana. It was never expected to be much of a contest, and the Tigers took care of business.

There remain some minor concerns about the offensive line, but LSU kicked things into gear on Saturday. Up next is a big test, on the road at a top 25 Ole Miss team.

RESULT: 26-7 win vs. Florida
Miami looked like it was going to roll over Florida after the first quarter, but the Gators hung tough defensively for most of the game. Carson Beck wasn’t his sharpest, turning it over at a really inopportune time in the second half.

But Miami’s depth simply wore Florida down and the ‘Canes cruised to a lopsided win. Now Miami gets a bye week to prepare for a showdown with unbeaten Florida State. It should be a good one.

RESULT: BYE WEEK
Georgia is coming off a bye after a hugely emotional win in an overtime contest on the road at Tennessee. That one was a huge victory to secure when it comes to the College Football Playoff race.

Now the Bulldogs get a chance to put another stamp on their resume. Alabama is headed to town for a massive top 25 showdown. The winner of that will be in the thick of the playoff conversation.

RESULT: 41-7 win vs. Oregon State
Oregon cruised to 4-0 with an easy win over its in-state rival on Saturday. That sets up a massive showdown against Penn State one week from now, one that will set the tone in both the Big Ten race and the top 25 standings.

Quarterback Dante Moore was excellent again this week, going 21-of-31 passing for 305 yards and four touchdowns without an interception. And not to be outdone, the Oregon ground game chipped in 280 yards. Formidable.

RESULT: 66-10 win vs. Kent State
The win over Kent State was as easy as they come. Florida State hung up 35 points in the first quarter alone, putting its stamp onto the game very early on.

If there was a question mark in this one it was the health of starting quarterback Tommy Castellanos. Castellanos was injured during the game and did not return, though it looked like he might be able to if necessary. Can he return fully healthy next week?

RESULT: 55-0 win vs. Sam Houston
Arch Manning needed a bounce-back game and he certainly got it. He was fired up about it, too, getting a little swagger back as he went 18-of-21 passing for 309 yards and three touchdowns.

Texas is still a bit of an enigma as a team, failing to post many dominant results (Saturday notwithstanding) but also losing a very close one at Ohio State. An upcoming road trip to Florida after a bye week should tell us a lot more.

RESULT: 24-17 win vs. Auburn
Oklahoma had its hands full against Auburn on Saturday in a matchup against former quarterback Jackson Arnold. But the Sooners put Arnold in a blender and never flipped the switch to the off position.

The team racked up 10 sacks in the game, more than all but nine teams in the country had going into Saturday. Oklahoma has proven its the real deal. Now it gets a bye week and then a game against Kent State before the annual game against Texas.

RESULT: BYE WEEK
Texas A&M entered its bye week riding a huge wave of momentum after winning a top 25 showdown with Notre Dame prior to the break. The late come-from-behind win was as impressive as any in college football so far this season.

Quarterback Marcel Reed has brought some dynamic ability to the team and the defense is doing just enough for coach Mike Elko to rack up wins right now. Will that continue against Auburn next week? We’ll see.

Rest of the AP Top 25 Projections

11. Iowa State Cyclones (4-0)
12. Ole Miss Rebels (4-0)
13. Alabama Crimson Tide (2-1)
14. Indiana Hoosiers (4-0)
15. Tennessee Volunteers (3-1)
16. Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-0)
17. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (4-0)
18. Vanderbilt Commodores (4-0)
19. Michigan Wolverines (3-1)
20. Missouri Tigers (4-0)
21. Illinois Fighting Illini (3-1)
22. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (1-2)
23. USC Trojans (3-0)
24. BYU Cougars (3-0)
25. Auburn Tigers (3-1)

Note: USC is playing a late game against Michigan State. This projection will be updated accordingly at the conclusion of that game.