It was a huge Week 3 for Pat Forde and Iain MacMillan, and they’re now all tied up at 8-8 in this year’s First to Forde competition. Forde went 4-1 with his Week 3 picks, but MacMillan had a solid week in his own right, going 3-2.
Now, they’re tied 8-8 in their race to 40 correct spread picks. Each week, they’ll break down their top five picks for the upcoming week’s college football action.
Let’s take a look at their picks for the Week 4 slate and see if they can have back-to-back big weeks.
Memphis +7.5 vs. Arkansas (via FanDuel)
This is a huge home game for the Tigers, and they’re taking on an opponent coming off a game at Mississippi, and looking forward to Notre Dame’s first-ever visit to Fayetteville. So the schedule certainly favors Memphis, which is employing a more run-based offensive scheme this season. Control the ball, keep it away from Taylen Green, and at least cover – maybe win outright.
Utah -2.5 vs. Texas Tech (via FanDuel)
The Utes have been there and done that in terms of playing big conference games, and other than the 2024 blip of a season, they have been a stellar home team. Red Raiders have to prove that they have the mettle (and the coaching) to handle this situation on the road.
Wyoming +13.5 at Colorado (via BetMGM)
The Buffaloes have issues all over the place – tackling, throwing, catching, running. The Cowboys aren’t great, but they can keep this one close enough to cover a generous spread.
Iowa -3.5 at Rutgers (via FanDuel)
In these kinds of games, the Hawkeyes fall back on their principles: defense, special teams, running game, and field position. And the Scarlet Knights happen to be quite susceptible to a solid running attack, having given up 5.58 yards per game thus far this season against scant competition.
West Virginia +13.5 at Kansas (via Caesars)
The schedule favors the Jayhawks, who are coming off an open date, while the Mountaineers are coming off an overtime Backyard Brawl triumph. But the bet here is that WVU found something in that game and will be more energized than enervated in Lawrence. This should be a close game.
TCU -6.5 vs. SMU (via BetMGM)
TCU made quick work of UNC in Week 1 and then steamrolled Abilene Christian in Week 3. My bet on them this week doesn’t have to do with those two wins; it has to do with Josh Hoover, who I think is going to enter the Heisman Trophy conversation within the next few weeks. He has already racked up 621 passing yards for six touchdowns while completing 76.2% of his throws this season. Now, he gets to face an SMU secondary that has allowed 8.2 yards per throw this season, which ranks 98th in the country.
Utah -2.5 vs. Texas Tech (via FanDuel)
It’s hard to take much out of any game these two teams have played so far this season, but if you trust the advanced metrics, the advantage belongs to Utah. The Utes rank seventh in the country in adjusted EPA at +0.43, while Texas Tech comes in at 23rd at +0.21. That’s enough for me to back Utah to cover as a home favorite in this important Big 12 showdown.
Nebraska +2.5 vs. Michigan (via FanDuel)
Until Bryce Underwood develops into the quarterback he can be, I’m going to struggle to back Michigan against teams that around around their skill level. Coming into this week, Nebraska ranks right around Michigan in adjusted EPA per Play, but the Cornhuskers outrank them in Net Yards per Play at +3.63 compared to +2.57. At home, Nebraska is a good look as an underdog.
Ole Miss -11.5 vs. Tulane (via BetMGM)
I’m not buying what Tulane is selling, which is that the Green Wave is the best Group of Five team in the country. The advanced numbers don’t love them, as they rank 41st in adjusted EPA while sporting a Net Yards per Play of just +0.34 and a success rate of -2.6%. Ole Miss outranks the Green Wave in almost every metric, and I think they’ll show the country Tulane isn’t on the Rebels’ level on Saturday.
Purdue +24.5 vs. Notre Dame (via FanDuel)
I correctly called the Texas A&M upset against Notre Dame last week, and I don’t have any faith in the Fighting Irish bouncing back with a convincing win against Purdue. Notre Dame ranks 90th in the country in adjusted EPA, and until both C.J. Carr and their defense prove that the first few weeks were nothing more than a slow start, I’m going to take the plethora of points we can get on Purdue in this matchup.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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