“He just ran an over route. I undercut it, and as soon as I looked up, I saw the ball was coming. [Bowers] has a great catch radius, so I knew I had to get my hands up on the ball,” Davis told Patriots.com. “I looked back and J-Hawk was in a good position and he made the play.”
Unfortunately, the positive momentum generated by the Patriots interception, which flipped the first half in their favor, went in the other direction when Maye was intercepted in the second half. In a low-scoring affair, the giveaways by the respective offenses were two of the most significant momentum swings in the game, with the Raiders taking control following their takeaway in the second half.
On a positive note, Davis signed a lucrative three-year contract with the Patriots in free agency to make big-time plays against big-time players, and he did just that on Sunday.
2. Patriots QB Drake Maye Delivers Uneven Performance in Loss to Raiders
Among the many things that go into the let’s not overreact category: Maye’s second-half struggles following a third-quarter interception.
In the first two quarters, the Patriots had 199 total yards of offense while Maye was generating +0.26 expected points added per drop-back. However, that fell off in the second half, where Maye’s expected points added output was just -0.30. Until he threw for 54 yards on the Pats final possession, which was essentially garbage time down 10 points, Maye was 10-of-17 for 83 yards on five second-half drives that went interception, punt, punt, punt, and punt.
Obviously, that’s not all on the young quarterback. New England’s passing game also struggled to generate explosive plays versus Vegas’s cover-three and cover-two zone coverages. As expected, Raiders head coach Pete Carroll majored in cover three, playing three-deep coverages on 26-of-53 drop-backs for Maye (59.3%). When the Raiders weren’t playing cover three, they leaned on split-safety zones such as cover-two (25.9%). By playing soft zone shells, the Raiders forced Maye to string positive plays together by picking them apart underneath.
From this perspective, if there’s one big-picture concern from Sunday’s game, it’s that Maye seems better suited for an explosive play offense that doesn’t ask him to be precise with his accuracy down-to-down. In other words, more deep shots and out-of-structure playmaking, less death by a thousand paper cuts. However, the Patriots are still searching for the right mix of supporting cast members to fit Maye’s skillset, while OC Josh McDaniels leans more toward the low-variance efficiency plays rather than the volatile but splashy big-play offensive style.
For example, Maye pointed to a first-down play in the third quarter as a drive starter that he missed following his interception. With the Raiders rotating into a tricky cover-three zone, Maye saw an open Hunter Henry sitting on the left hash. Although his eyes were in the right place, Maye sailed the throw over Henry’s head, leading to an incompletion. The next three plays then went pass to Henderson in the flat (-1 yards), incomplete to Boutte on third down, punt.
“It was the second drive out where they messed up the kickoff, and we had the ball on the 40. I missed high over the middle on the first down, and then on the second down, I had a chance. Just plays like that, you don’t realize that those plays are going to be the ones you look back on and feel like, man, if we hit those, it’s a different ballgame,” Maye said. “Just got to get the first first down. I think once we get the first down, we moved the ball well and got in a rhythm.”
In the McDaniels offense, drive starters, or getting the initial first down to get the ball rolling, are huge. It sets the stage for the entire drive and allows McDaniels to get into his bag. On Sunday, the Patriots second-half offense didn’t execute those drive starters well enough, which is why they struggled to move the ball consistently in the loss to the Raiders. Again, let’s not overreact to one game. Still, the passing game overall wasn’t sharp enough to put many points on the board on Sunday.
3. Patriots Defense Surrenders Too Many Big Plays in the Passing Game
On the other side of the ball, the Patriots defense allowed nine explosive pass plays to Raiders QB Geno Smith and company on Sunday.
To his credit, Smith continues to be a fringe top-10 quarterback. Many folks around here still don’t give the 12-year veteran his due, probably because he’s considered a bust for the Jets and hasn’t had much playoff success. Still, Smith can ball, and he has now thrown for 327 yards (last season with Seahawks) and 362 yards in his last two games vs. the Patriots – both wins.
Along with breaking in a new quarterback-coordinator pairing offensively, DC Terrell Williams is also a new play-caller for a Patriots defense undergoing a significant scheme change. Although the onus is on the players to execute, there were a few moments of aggressiveness where Smith burned the Patriots, especially against all-out pressure, where Smith hit five 20-plus yard plays.
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