Another positive play for the young quarterback came on one of the Patriots five fourth-down plays. This time, the play resulted in a touchdown to TE Hunter Henry. New England appeared to correctly anticipate a cover two scheme, with Henry splitting the deep safeties to clear out space for Diggs’s route. However, Ramsey and LB Payton Wilson converged on Diggs, leaving Henry wide-open for a huge 16-yard touchdown to tie the game.
Ultimately, Maye’s up-and-down play is too reminiscent of his college career and rookie season. There are flashes of brilliant, franchise-level quarterback play. However, to consistently win football games, the Patriots need Maye to be more stable play-to-play and avoid turnovers.
3. Pats Running Backs Struggle with Ball Security in Sunday’s Loss to the Steelers
After fumbling the ball seven times last season, lead-back Rhamondre Stevenson put the ball on the ground twice, but Stevenson wasn’t the only one to fumble in Sunday’s loss.
Along with Stevenson’s fumbling struggles, spell-back Antonio Gibson also fumbled in the second half, with the Pats veteran duo combining for three fumbles. At this point, defenses are attacking the football when Stevenson carries the rock, knowing he has fumbling issues. On Sunday, the Pats RB fumbled on the goal-line as he attempted to rush for a game-tying touchdown following a fumble early in the game.
“We identify opportunities, and certainly he had some fumble issues last year. So, it was an agenda item for us,” Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin said of Stevenson.
Eventually, the Patriots turned to rookie TreVeyon Henderson to close the game. However, he’s had his own issues in blitz pickup, allowing an early pressure on Sunday, a perceived strength of his coming out of college. Most likely, those struggles for Henderson are mental while he learns the Patriots dual-read blitz protection system for running backs and adjusts to the speed of NFL blitzes. Still, a position of strength for this team based on the talent in the room let New England down on Sunday.
“We need his ability, but we also need to take care of the football,” Vrabel said of Stevenson. “I’m not really sure 20 minutes after the game what we’re going to do, but we need him.”
4. Patriots Defense Laments Lack of Opportunities to Rush Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers
One theme over the last two weeks for the Patriots defense is that both Rodgers and Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa haven’t given the Pats defensive front much time to take over the game. On Sunday, Rodgers’ average time to throw was a brisk 2.45 seconds, while the 41-year-old quarterback’s average target depth was only 4.6 yards. In all, Rodgers only attempted 31.9% of his passes when he held the ball for over 2.5 seconds (nine total attempts), so the ball came out quickly.
The feeling is that the Patriots pass rush, led by Milton Williams, Christian Barmore, Harold Landry, and K’Lavon Chaisson, can take games over. But opponents are calling quick games, screens, and runs to avoid pressure. Early on, the Steelers ran the ball effectively on the Patriots defense on their opening touchdown drive, but New England mostly cleaned that up. The Patriots need to find ways to let their pass rush eat to make a bigger impact on the game.
5. Patriots Secondary Shadows Steelers Receivers DK Metcalf and Calvin Austin
New England mostly played the matchups versus Austin and Metcalf in Week 3. Free-agent addition Carlton Davis lined up against Metcalf 18 times, or 81.8% of his routes, while captain Marcus Jones had Austin on 61.1% of his routes (11 total). The results were mixed, as Davis and Jones gave up touchdowns to the Steelers receiver duo on go routes. Davis was also called for an iffy 18-yard pass interference penalty. Overall, Metcalf had three catches for 32 yards and a touchdown with a drawn DPI on Davis. As for Austin, the Steelers wideout had two catches for 25 yards and a touchdown with Jones in coverage.
One last note on the Patriots secondary: it appeared that CB Charles Woods replaced CB Alex Austin in the second quarter. Austin was called for pass interference on a third-down play in the red zone, while a defensive holding call on Austin negated a third-down strip-sack by Williams in the second quarter. Austin, who had a strong camp, has struggled to start the season in place of star CB Christian Gonzalez, who was inactive for the third-straight game due to his hamstring injury.
6. Pass Protection was Shaky Based on Initial Viewing of Pats-Steelers
As always, we’ll have to review the tape to get a more accurate assessment of the offensive line. However, watching live, the pressure was noticeable, especially early in the game. According to Pro Football Focus’s initial charting, Maye was under pressure on 38.3% of his drop-backs, while rookie LT Will Campbell struggled in his matchup vs. Steelers edge rusher Nick Herbig. Herbig, an explosive speed rusher, had seven total pressures on Sunday, while the Pats rookie left side allowed a Cameron Heyward sack on a T/E stunt scheme.
Along with Campbell and Wilson combining to allow 11 total pressures, RT Morgan Moses gave up a sack to Steelers star T.J. Watt. For context, Maye dropped back to pass 47 times, while the Steelers blitzed at an extremely high rate (44.7%). This offensive line has improved from last season, but it’s clear that the Pats aren’t built to be a high-volume drop-back passing offense yet.
7. Vrabel Goes for it on Fourth Down Five Times, and the Math is on his Side
In the offseason, Vrabel pointed to a successful formula to make in-game decisions, working alongside John “Stretch” Streicher when asked about his decision-making process. Streicher’s official title is VP of Football Operations and Strategy, and Stretch is held in high regard in league circles for his grasp of game situations and analytics. On Sunday, the Patriots went for it on fourth down five times, converting four of them, including going for it on 4th-and-1 from their own 15-yard line down 14-7 in the second quarter.
“I just want to be aggressive, want to be decisive and aggressive and give these guys opportunities to win the game. Felt like those were good calls for us. The players executed it. We just weren’t able to score off of some of them,” Vrabel said of the fourth-down decisions.
Although they likely have their own models, Ben Baldwin’s decision-making calculator agreed with Vrabel’s fourth-down decisions – even from his own 15-yard line. So far, the Pats have been lockstep with Baldwin’s model in terms of their fourth-down decision-making. So, if we had to guess, the Patriots are using analytics to make these decisions.
8. Quiet Day for the Patriots Special Teams Units in Week 3 Loss
After an eventful performance last week, the Patriots didn’t attempt any field goals and only punted once due to Vrabel’s aggressiveness on fourth down. Rookie K Andy Borregales made both his extra points, which was noteworthy after the first-year kicker missed two extra points in Miami. Another notable takeaway was that the Steelers kickoff coverage unit seemed to win the battle against the Pats returners. Pats kickoff returners TreVeyon Henderson and Antonio Gibson only averaged 23.5 yards per kickoff return (four returns for 94 yards). Vrabel has said numerous times that the returners need to be weapons for this team, so it was notable that their longest kickoff return on four attempts was just 26 yards.
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