While it’s important to know who to target as you prepare for your fantasy football drafts, it’s equally as important to know which fantasy football draft landmines you’re avoiding. Our analysts provide players they are avoiding in their fantasy football drafts. Here are a few players they consider overvalued or are otherwise avoiding this fantasy football draft season.
You can find all of their players to avoid here: Fitz | DBro | Erickson | Joe
Fantasy Football Draft Landmines to Avoid
Here are a few fantasy football draft landmines our analysts avoid.
Fitz’s Players to Avoid
Baker Mayfield (QB – TB)
He’s become a quality NFL quarterback, but Mayfield is being overvalued after his career year in 2024.
Mayfield had 41 touchdown passes last year. He had never thrown even 30 TD passes in any other season. Mayfield also ran for a career-high 378 rushing yards last year. He’d never had even 200 rushing yards in any previous season.
It’s easy to understand Mayfield’s appeal. The Buccaneers are loaded at wide receiver with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Emeka Egbuka, and Jalen McMillan. The Bucs also have one of the better offensive lines in the league.
But after a season in which Mayfield established new career highs in pretty much every statistical category across the board, regression is in order.
Also, Mayfield is getting another new offensive coordinator after losing Dave Canales following the 2023 season and Liam Coen following the 2024 season. The Buccaneers’ new playcaller is 34-year-old Josh Grizzard, who’s never been an NFL offensive coordinator.
Mayfield’s ADP as of mid-June was QB7, 59th overall. That’s too steep a price. Last year was the time to invest in Baker Mayfield. Don’t chase last year’s fantasy points.
Breece Hall (RB – NYJ)
Hall is a talented back, and I generally don’t like fading talented players because of seemingly worrisome situations.
But Hall’s situation is pretty worrisome.
New Jets head coach Aaron Glenn has repeatedly talked about wanting to use all three of his running backs — Hall, Braelon Allen, and Isaiah Davis. It’s been a recurring theme in Glenn’s offseason media sessions. For instance …
“I would say that we have three running backs on this team that we’re gonna utilize as much as possible.”
“It could be a 1-2-3 punch with the guys we have.”
“If we can get them all on the field at one time, we’ll do that.”
(Hat tip to Greg Brainos of the Coachspeak Index for the Glenn quotes.)
Passing-game usage is the other concern with Hall.
Hall has been a productive pass catcher. He’s averaged 66.5 catches a season and 4.0 catches a game over the last two years. But the Jets’ new quarterback is Justin Fields, a prolific rusher. Running QBs tend to check down to their RBs less often, because they’ll often just run themselves when pass protection breaks down. When Fields was the Bears’ full-time quarterback in 2022, Chicago running backs combined for just 46 catches that season.
Check out all of Fitz’s fantasy football picks to avoid 
DBro’s Players to Avoid
Zay Flowers (WR – BAL)
Zay Flowers is a WR2 in ADP right now. I just have one question: Why? I love Flowers’ talent, but what is vaulting him into this fantasy tier? It’s not his production. Over the last two seasons, he has finished as the WR32 and WR31 in fantasy points per game. Those finishes have occurred with Flowers outplaying his volume as the WR33 and WR38 in expected fantasy points per game. Do we think Baltimore will pass more in 2025? Doubtful with their offensive coordinator, Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry all returning to Baltimore for this season.
Last season, Baltimore ranked third in rushing rate and ninth in neutral rushing rate. I don’t see that changing this season. So, could it be touchdown expectations fueling the Flowers’ hope? Nope. He has ranked 28th and 59th in red-zone targets over the last two seasons among wide receivers. With Rashod Bateman and Mark Andrews still on the team and the addition of DeAndre Hopkins in the offseason, we should have more worries about Flowers’ red-zone role decreasing than hope that it surges in 2025.
Flowers will remain a solid WR3, but I can’t expect him to vault into WR2 production. I can’t see it for 2025, and I won’t be paying for it in drafts.
Check out all of DBro’s fantasy football picks to avoid
Erickson’s Players to Avoid
DJ Moore (WR – CHI)
DJ Moore wrapped up a strange 2024 campaign as the WR16 in total points but just WR32 in points per game (11.1). On the surface, his 98 receptions for 966 yards and 6 touchdowns look fine, especially within the confines of a dysfunctional Bears offense. Still, he posted a career-low 1.44 yards per route run and a 25% bust rate, tied for the third-highest among top-24 wide receivers. That’s especially troubling considering Moore was supposed to be the clear alpha in a broken Bears passing game. While Moore did show signs of life after Thomas Brown took over play-calling duties – topping 5.5 receptions in every game down the stretch – his role shifted to a low aDOT (5.3). He saw plenty of volume (27% target share), but the high-value looks were going elsewhere.
Rookie Rome Odunze dominated air yards and end-zone opportunities, while current street free agent Keenan Allen (before his Week 18 absence) was quietly leading the team in targets since Week 11. Looking ahead to 2025, Moore’s situation has changed yet again. Allen is gone, but the Bears added two high-upside rookies with first and second-round draft capital: WR Luther Burden and TE Colston Loveland. Both are dynamic after the catch and will challenge Moore for volume in a Ben Johnson-led offense that should be significantly more efficient with Caleb Williams entering Year 2. That said, Moore’s career production profile doesn’t scream alpha WR1. Outside of his WR6 finish in 2023 (a year heavily influenced by a few monster games), Moore has never finished inside the top-15 WRs across his career. He’s a classic boom-or-bust weekly WR2 – capable of game-breaking performances but just as likely to disappear depending on game script and usage. Moore should be drafted as a volatile WR2/WR3 with spike-week appeal, but expectations should be tempered. Moore is fine at ADP, especially if he slips. But there may be better value elsewhere in the Bears’ passing game, particularly if Rome Odunze continues to command high-value touches or Burden emerges as a YAC weapon in the slot.
Moore’s ceiling remains intact, but his path to consistency looks as murky as ever.
Deebo Samuel (WR – WAS)
Terry McLaurin is still not attending the Commanders’ OTAs in the pursuit of a new contract. With him not in attendance and threatening a holdout, we could see Deebo Samuel step in as the de facto No. 1 WR with some strong early-season production. We have seen recently that players who have missed offseason time due to contract disputes have not produced up to expectations, besides, of course, Ja’Marr Chase.
If McLaurin’s contract dispute lingers into the summer, Deebo’s ADP might rise. And even though I spoke about Samuel being a potential bust in a recent podcast, I can admit that his price is more palatable than McLaurin’s as a fantasy WR4, especially with him slated for some decent early-season opportunities while he’s at his healthiest. That being said, you need to be careful with Samuel if his ADP continues to climb. Because he also has glaring red flags in his profile.
Samuel averaged just 8.5 PPG and finished outside the top-40 WRs in 2024, even with Brandon Aiyuk sidelined and minimal target competition. Just one game over 22 receiving yards in his final 7 outings; Jauan Jennings overtook him as the top target in the 49ers offense.
In his defense, the RB/WR hybrid battled through injuries and pneumonia, but the production cratered despite a strong opportunity. In 15 games, he surpassed his weekly projection thrice (20%). Samuel was expected to be cut from the 49ers, but they instead traded him to the Commanders for a fifth-round pick, followed by a one-year reworked contract. His injury history is well-documented, and it’s clear that the 29-year-old is way past his peak form. There’s only so much fantasy juice to squeeze for an aging player potentially pigeon-holed into a surplus of screen passes out of the backfield.
Check out all of Erickson’s fantasy football picks to avoid
Joe’s Players to Avoid
Brandon Aiyuk (WR – SF)
Coming off a major knee surgery, Brandon Aiyuk may be slow to start the season, and every week counts in fantasy football. He also has plenty of competition for targets if Christian McCaffrey is healthy again — George Kittle, Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall.
That potentially leaves Aiyuk in no man’s land. His weekly floor feels too low, and the ceiling could be lower as well, based on his questionable explosiveness returning from major surgery. Usually, I want at least a steady floor or an explosive upside. If someone can’t give me either, then what’s the point in drafting them?
Check out all of Joe’s fantasy football picks to avoid
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
