In what has been one of the NFL’s premier rivalries, the 5-3 Kansas City Chiefs are taking on the 5-2 Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York.
This AFC showdown (which will be available to the entire country on CBS) will feature two of the league’s best quarterbacks — Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen — in what is expected to be one of the regular season’s best games. Kansas City needs a win to keep pace in the AFC West and stay alive for the No. 1 seed. Buffalo needs a victory to keep up with the New England Patriots in the AFC East.
While the Bills have recently gotten the better of the Chiefs in the regular season — holding a 4-1 record in their the last five matchups — Kansas City has prevailed when it matters most: in the playoffs, where it has won four straight. This game will likely be decided by only a few plays.
1. Patrick Mahomes versus Josh Allen
This rivalry is built upon the emergence of Mahomes and Allen as two of the league’s top quarterbacks. Last season, Allen won his first MVP award — but this year, Mahomes looks like he’s on a quest for his third.
In 2025, Mahomes has accumulated 2,099 passing yards, 17 touchdowns and a 103.1 passer rating — while Allen has recorded 1,560 yards with 14 touchdowns and a 103.6 rating. Both are in the midst of elite seasons they guide their offenses toward the playoffs. In the games between them, Mahomes holds a 5-4 edge — and these games typically come down to the fourth quarter. Sunday’s contest should be no different.
2. Exploiting the Bills’ run defense
This season, Buffalo’s defense has taken a step back — largely due to its run defense. The Bills have allowed 150 rushing yards per game, which is second-worst in the league behind the Cincinnati Bengals.
A depleted defensive front will be without defensive tackles Ed Oliver (now on the team’s Reserve/Injured list) and DaQuan Jones (who has been declared out for Sunday) may be susceptible to Kansas City’s ninth-ranked rushing offense.
While many of the Chiefs’ rushing yards have come from Mahomes’ legs, Kansas City’s offensive line and running backs have performed well in recent weeks. Running back Isiah Pacheco and left tackle Josh Simmons are listed as out for the game, but running backs Kareem Hunt and Brashard Smith could be poised for breakout games. The savvy veteran has looked better week by week, while the rookie has been working his way into the Chiefs’ offense one step at a time.
Kansas City could also benefit from the return of its lead mauler: left guard Trey Smith, who missed last week’s matchup with back spasms but has a chance to play. The Chiefs would be wise to empty the toolbox in the ground game: not only zone looks, but also power, counter, trap and pin-and-pull plays.
Allen is the catalyst for Buffalo’s offensive success — and Kansas City must be prepared to contain him. One of the league’s best from the pocket (and on the move), Allen can dice defenses any way he chooses. The Chiefs will need a quality plan.
In past matchups, defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has elected to keep Allen in the pocket with disciplined pass-rushng lanes while mixing coverages to keep him guessing. Because Allen breaks contain as well as anyone, Kansas City’s edge rushers will need to stay disciplined, preventing him from running wild or throwing on the move.
Linebackers Drue Tranquill, Nick Bolton and Leo Chenal will have the tough task of patrolling the open field, while the defensive ends must remain assignment-sound in their lanes. Stopping Allen will be nearly impossible — but containing him can provide the basis for a win.
4. Stopping running back James Cook
Allen’s backfield counterpart is coming off a 216-yard performance against the Carolina Panthers and ranks second in the league with 753 rushing yards. Cook has been central to the Bills’ success since he was drafted in 2022 — and he’s on pace for a career season.
Under Spagnuolo, Kansas City’s defense has typically been strong against the run — and this year is no different. The Chiefs rank 11th in rushing defense at 100 yards per game — and over the last three, they’ve allowed just 61 per game — the league’s third-best mark.
Sunday’s game will stress the Chiefs’ defensive line and linebackers — but the unit should get a boost with defensive tackle Mike Pennel rejoining the team. Pennel has been a stalwart the the team’s previous run-stopping efforts — and will likely see key snaps on early downs.
Stopping Cook’s cutback lanes will be critical — and Kansas City must be ready to manhandle Buffalo at the line of scrimmage.
In a matchup of high-powered offenses, the team that forces a turnover will likely win.
The Chiefs hold a +5 turnover margin for 2025, while the Bills sit at +2. Kansas City is the NFL’s only team that has yet to lose a fumble this season; its four turnovers have all been Mahomes interceptions. Buffalo has a similar record, with one lost fumble and four Allen interceptions.
So this is where one of the secondaries could swing the game. With pressure on both quarterbacks, watch to see if either defensive backfield jumps a passing lane.
In a game loaded with offensive firepower, the team that creates the first mistake will have a distinct advantage.
Source link
