- Braelon Allen could be more than just Breece Hall’s handcuff: Allen outperformed Hall as a rookie in key rushing metrics, and with a potentially new approach to this backfield, Allen looks like he’ll be in for a bigger role in 2025.
- J.J. McCarthy steps into an ideal situation to outperform his current ADP: McCarthy should find immediate success in Kevin O’Connell’s offense, and after Sam Darnold finished as the QB7 last season, we should have McCarthy circled late in drafts.
- Data, tools and expert insights: Use code earlybird to save $20 on your PFF+ annual subscription.
Estimated Reading Time: 8 minutes
There is often plenty of value in the later rounds of fantasy football drafts because many aren’t as tuned into the options going outside of the first 10 rounds or so.
This list will highlight some of the more enticing fantasy options to target in those double-digit rounds. Some of these players are likely to be on the rise for those paying attention, so get in on them at a discount while you still can.
RB Braelon Allen, New York Jets
With Aaron Glenn and Tanner Engstrand coming over from Detroit, Allen is expected to play a larger role, potentially on early downs, cutting into Breece Hall’s workload. There has been some hype and evidence coming out of training camp to support this belief, though Allen’s play on early downs and as a runner last year were also more encouraging than Hall’s, adding to this potential shift to mimic the usage of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs in Detroit.
Allen (82.0) significantly outperformed Hall (68.7) in rushing grade last year overall and in short-yardage situations, where he earned a 90.0 rushing grade on 18 attempts compared to Hall’s 72.6 on 23 attempts. With Allen being the bigger and more effective runner, it makes sense that he would play the Montgomery role, which would also lead to him receiving the bigger opportunity around the goal line, which would be crucial to him outperforming his current ADP evaluation. When it came to avoiding stuffed runs, Allen was only stuffed on 12.5% of his attempts – second-best mark in the league – while Hall was stuffed on 40.9% – a bottom-five mark.
All the evidence points to Allen being more involved this season, and if he begins to cut into Hall’s receiving work as well, he might be one of the best sleeper targets of the offseason.
WR Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts
Heading into 2024, Michael Pittman Jr. was the top Colts wide receiver, and coming out of 2024, Alec Pierce led the team in receiving production. However, Downs, who emerged as the Colts’ top receiving threat on a per-play basis last season, recording an excellent 28.0% target rate across 14 games. The combination of these three receivers, the addition of high-end receiving tight-end Tyler Warren, and the major question marks at quarterback have created a dip in value for this entire pass-catching unit. While Downs is being identified as the top option of the group, his ADP still puts him in a position where he can greatly outperform expectations.
Downs wasn’t just the most effective receiver on the Colts last season, but he was looking like one of the emerging stars in the league, ranking 11th in PFF receiving grade (85.1) and tied for 17th in yards per route run (2.20) while finding high-end success versus man coverage. Downs ranked 16th in PFF receiving grade versus man (84.2) and ranked top 25 among wide receivers in fantasy points per route run versus man coverage (0.52) and top 20 versus zone (0.48), as he seemed to find his stride in Year 2.
Downs’ 12.6 PPR points per game in 2024 were good for WR3 production, and after his emergence last season in so many key underlying metrics for the position, there should be enough belief that he can deliver much more for fantasy. The quarterback play will continue to be a question, most likely, but with Downs’ role as the primary slot and intermediate receiving threat, he becomes the target in the offense with more high-percentage completion targets thrown in his direction, along with Warren. Getting Downs outside of the top-100 picks is already a value, but there’s room for even more if he stays healthy and with better quarterback play in 2025.
WR Emeka Egbuka, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Egbuka’s path to snaps and targets isn’t ideal heading into his rookie season, as Mike Evans is aiming for his 12th-straight 1,000-yard receiving season and Chris Godwin should be healthy coming off his dislocated ankle. However, both of those top targets have question marks, as Evans’ age is potentially becoming a concern, while Godwin’s health could potentially hamper his potential this season. If either or both of those concerns become a reality, then Egbuka’s path clears up significantly.
Not only has Egbuka been one of the Bucs’ stars of training camp, but he is a proven college talent for the position that should give us even more reason to believe in Egbuka hitting the ground running in Year 1. Egbuka owns a career 89.7 college receiving grade (84th percentile since 2019), 2.61 career yards per route run (81st percentile) and 0.15 career first-down-plus-touchdown rate (89th percentile). He can also give the Buccaneers reason to not rush Godwin back to the lineup, if he’s not 100%, and if Egbuka does make an impact immediately, he might not give that starting job up easily.
Considering the talent, the offense, Egbuka’s potential opportunity in Year 1, and if Evans and/or Godwin aren’t the same players, betting on him beyond the top-40 wide receivers is an easy bet to make in 2025.
QB J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings
After missing his entire rookie season due to injury, Sam Darnold filled in as the starter and greatly outperformed expectations, delivering 20.0 fantasy points per game and finishing the year as the overall QB7. Considering that Darnold has never finished inside the top-24 fantasy quarterbacks in his previous six seasons, a lot of credit is due to Kevin O’Connell’s offense as being a key reason why a quarterback can outperform expectations.
While O’Connell’s passing offense provides a big boost to his quarterback, having the weapons to utilize within that offense is also crucial. Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison represent an excellent receiving corps for McCarthy to utilize and create more production than expected based on their talent and what they can provide after the catch. This is one of the top receiving units in the league and will certainly make McCarthy’s life easier in his first year as a starter.
Of course, with no NFL snaps thus far, there’s risk in trusting McCarthy too much, but based on his price tag in drafts right now as a low-end QB2, there’s minimal risk in taking a swing on him. Coming out of college, there weren’t any glaring weaknesses in McCarthy’s game to make us believe he’ll be significantly worse than Darnold, and considering the Vikings’ trust in him to allow Darnold to walk in free agency after a great year, we should have similar confidence, especially at this ADP.
TE Brenton Strange, Jacksonville Jaguars
The new look Jaguars offense under Liam Coen heading into this season includes a big change at tight end with Evan Engram no longer on the team, which should lead to Jacksonville leaning on Strange to assume the TE1 role for this passing attack. Strange will have to earn his targets in Coen’s offense, as the tight end position wasn’t a significant part of Tampa Bay’s passing offense unless either Mike Evans or Chris Godwin was out. Strange’s efficiency was on par with Engram’s in 2024, finishing right behind Engram’s 1.51 yards per route run (1.49). Strange’s 8.6 PPR points per game across eight games without Engram also came close to matching Engram’s 9.9 across his nine games last season. It’s a relatively small sample, but Strange at least looks capable of playing a key part in this offense.
Strange’s best stretch last season came with Trevor Lawrence under center from Weeks 2-5, earning the ninth-most fantasy points at the position over that stretch. A full offseason under his belt operating as the team’s top receiving tight end and building a strong rapport with Lawrence should not be overlooked as a big part of his development as he enters Year 3. Considering the lack of depth behind Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter, Strange has a great opportunity to play a fantasy-relevant role in the Jaguars’ passing game.
With Strange being drafted so late at the position, or not drafted at all, he serves as a potentially massive value to target as tight end depth should anything happen to whoever is slated to play your TE1 role from earlier in drafts. Strange should be capable of delivering starting-quality production at the position across an entire season, and considering he’s not anywhere near that price tag right now, he’s an easy bet to make at the end of drafts.
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