Are you ready for some very late Monday Night Football?
For the first time in team history, the Seattle Seahawks are playing a regular season home game at 7 pm PT. I guess we should also spare a thought for Houston Texans fans who have to watch their team play at 9 pm CT. Anyway, it’s time to make predictions for this last Seahawks game until November. First up, let’s review what happened last week.
Bold prediction: Seahawks have over 150 rushing yards
Bold? It was a stupid prediction.
Seahawks offense prediction: Elijah Arroyo scores his first touchdown
The wait continues. Even funnier is I predicted the same for Cooper Kupp in the Buccaneers game and he got it a week later. Maybe this means Arroyo scores tonight.
Seahawks defense prediction: The secondary overachieves
Despite some coverage busts and some good fortune with drops and bad Trevor Lawrence throws, I consider this a win for the Seahawks secondary. If it takes you 27 completions on 42 attempts to get 258 yards, you’ve not had a terribly efficient today.
Jaguars prediction: You guessed it, they’ll force turnovers out of the Seahawks
A couple of nervy moments but it was a clean game in terms of turnovers.
Game prediction: Seahawks commit too many mistakes, finally lose a road game
Another prediction I’m happy to be wrong about.
Bold prediction: Jaxon Smith-Njigba won’t be Seattle’s leading receiver
The NFL has been unable to stop the Sam Darnold to JSN combo all season. JSN has led the Seahawks in receiving yards in every game and he’s on pace to have one of the great single-season receiving yardage totals in league history. It’ll be tough sledding against a Texans defense that is No. 1 in points allowed and top five in FTN’s DVOA. Derek Stingley Jr is one of the NFL’s premier corners and the battles between him and Smith-Njigba will be fascinating to watch.
Knowing full well Demeco Ryans will be hell bent on limiting JSN, it might be time for someone else to step up for a day. Cooper Kupp could feature more out of his familiar slot role, A.J. Barner or Elijah Arroyo could try and work on PA boots and seam passes in the middle of the field, and maybe Tory Horton can bounce back after a 0-catch day.
This passing offense is very JSN reliant and it’s working well, but every once in awhile you need one of the “others” to step up, and that’s what I see happening. Someone other than Smith-Njigba will have the most receiving yards for Seattle.
Seahawks offense prediction: A running back has Seattle’s longest play
The usage of Walker is interesting. Zach Charbonnet out-snapped him last week and supposedly they’re managing an ongoing foot issue, which is serious enough to do load management but not serious enough to ever put him on a regular season injury report. He’s essentially a non-option on third down because Charbonnet is an elite pass protector, so Walker has a more limited role in the offense than your typical RB1.
Walker also has 12 runs of 10+ yards, which is tied for eighth-most in the NFL despite being 24th in total attempts. For perspective, Walker only had 13 such carries all of last season.
There is the obvious “boom or bust” style to his game but he has done more booming than you might think. Seattle’s rushing attack in general has also had a lot of busts between Walker and Charbonnet, which you can largely attribute to lackluster blocking for both backs. The Texans are middling by DVOA against the run, so there is a weakness there to be (potentially) exploited. We’ve also seen very little of Walker and Charbonnet as receivers; they have the lowest RB target share in the league.
I think the Seahawks will have a major moment from one of K9 or Zach. It’s lofty for me to think a screen will go very far but we’ve seen Walker turn a checkdown into a 60+ yard touchdown before. Ideally, the longest play is an actual long play and not 20 yards, so these could be famous last words in terms of my ambiguity.
Seahawks defense prediction: No explosive runs allowed
For the sake of simplicity, an explosive rush is a designed run of at least 10+ yards. Quarterback scrambles do not count since they’re called pass plays. The Seahawks are elite at stopping the run and have allowed only four explosive rushes to running backs all season. Houston has a similarly mediocre rushing attack (near the bottom in explosive plays) and an offensive line that is not a strength of the team. Nick Chubb is far from cooked, which is great to see given his injuries, but I think the Seahawks will be well prepared to limit Houston’s ground game and hold them to under 100 yards and no big runs.
Texans prediction: Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter each get a sack
These two standout edge rushers have seven sacks combined on the season and it seems very possible that they’ll once again each have double-digit sack seasons. This is a huge test for Charles Cross and Abe Lucas, and while I think they may have at least decent nights, it’s not going to be smooth sailing. Getting the ball out quickly will be a point of emphasis for Klint Kubiak, and Sam Darnold has been superb at getting the ball out on time. Of course, the Texans will also know that, and you also can’t just do quick game all night.
Seattle’s offensive line has held up very well against some formidable defensive lines, and I was amazed at how well the Seahawks ran the ball against the Vita Vea-led Buccaneers, but there may be enough losing reps in this one for the stars to feast. Sometimes the other team just has better players in specific matchups.
Game prediction: Seahawks win a close one
Defenses this good could lead to a game akin to the classic Seahawks vs. 49ers days of Carroll vs. Harbaugh, Wilson vs. Kaepernick, Legion of Boom vs. whatever nickname the 49ers had when their defenses were also stout. It will be one of those lower scoring matchups that’s actually exciting and intense to watch. Ultimately, I think the Seahawks have the higher caliber offense capable of compromising Houston’s defense than the other way around, and they’ll be eager to prove a point by getting a win at home after all of the woes this season and in recent years.
I’m going with the Seahawks to prevail 20-13, with C.J. Stroud turning it over on downs on the late game-tying drive, thereby making it consecutive weeks in which the Seahawks defense makes a key fourth quarter stand in order to preserve a victory. Sam Darnold has an efficient game if unspectacular, while the rushing attack is respectable enough to prevent the game from becoming one-dimensional.
That’s a wrap for predictions for me this month! Now it’s your turn! Deliver your picks and predictions in the comments section.
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