Hope always springs eternal in fantasy football, especially when rookies are added to a season’s player pool. The unknown of how they will perform in the NFL is one of the most exciting aspects of fantasy football draft seasons. How rookies will adapt to the speed, complexity and their role in the NFL is always one of the early season’s best storylines.
This season, there are a plethora of viable rookies to target in fantasy drafts. Ashton Jeanty, Omarion Hampton, Tyler Warren, Tetairoa McMillan and more offer tantalizing upside and team usage. Many of these rookies will be worthy of their average draft position (ADP) by year’s end, but some will not. Not all rookies will be able to adapt to their new situation. Others might let off-the-field circumstances dictate their 2025 role.
This article seeks to identify four rookies who are not worth their ADP in mid-August. I’ll be identifying each player’s ADP based on expert consensus rankings (ECR) to identify where they are being drafted relative to their rookie peers.
Overvalued Rookies to Avoid in Fantasy Football
With a strong rookie class entering the NFL in 2025, these are the names I would pass over in favor of other players in similar ranges or better situations.
Quinshon Judkins (RB – CLE)
- ECR: 126 (RB8 among rookies)
Everything about this whole Quinshon Judkins offseason screams stay away. Whether it’s legal trouble, contract disputes or performance concerns, the early second-round pick out of Ohio State has had trouble from almost the moment he was drafted. In other words, he fits right in with the Cleveland Browns.
Judkins was arrested for domestic violence and battery this offseason, which will surely lead to a legal journey that will end in a suspension. He has already waived his right to a speedy trial, and there is a chance he will be placed on the Commissioner’s Exempt List to start the season. That is the first strike against him.
The rookie back has also not signed a contract with the Cleveland Browns yet. I am sure the Browns are waiting to see how the legal drama unfolds at this point, but a player can’t play without a contract, so Judkins is not an option to play, much less be on a practice field right now. Even when he does join the Cleveland backfield (assuming he does), he will join a committee backfield that consists of Jerome Ford and fellow rookie Dylan Sampson. Both of those players will have miles of reps and experience ahead of Judkins.
Judkins was also very much a bruising style back in college, and there are questions about the transferability to the NFL. Defenders in the NFL are stronger, faster and more athletic. Judkins certainly could carve out a first and second-down role for Cleveland, but the warning signs are too bright for me to go down that road.
Luther Burden III (WR – CHI)
- ECR: 141 (WR4 among rookies)
After the Chicago Bears’ preseason game this weekend, Luther Burden was the topic of part of head coach Ben Johnson’s press conference. After giving Burden some props for coming in early and asking the right questions, Johnson also dropped the dreaded “things are not where they need to be right now” comment about Burden.
This is not what you want to hear, less than four weeks until the regular season begins. Burden is already facing serious target competition from DJ Moore, Rome Odunze and fellow rookie Colston Loveland. If Burden is well behind in the passing pecking order, his draft rank of rookie WR4 is too rich for me. Give me Matthew Golden slightly later in drafts right now.
Burden is a burner who can fly past defenders, but he only had a 19.8% target share in his last year of college and compiled just 676 yards in 12 games. We also can’t overlook the fact that there is no guarantee Caleb Williams will succeed in Johnson’s system. It’s a significant upgrade over last season, but Williams is the one who still has to execute it on the field.
Jack Bech (WR – LV)
- ECR: 194 (WR9 among rookies)
Even though Jack Bech is a talented wide receiver out of TCU and was taken in the second round this year, the Raiders’ draft for 2025 will always be judged for what happens with Ashton Jeanty. Jeanty and tight end Brock Bowers seem to be the new focal points of this offense, and wide receivers come further down the pecking order.
Bech has not been able to separate himself from rookie wide receiver Dont’e Thornton Jr. in camp, and now sees himself as a backup on the Raiders’ first depth chart. That’s not written in stone, but it shows that Jakobi Meyers and Thornton are also likely to get more targets than Bech.
In his first preseason game, Bech ran 16 routes on the perimeter out of 17 total. That’s a bad thing for Bech, as the Raiders need to find a slot receiver. If Bech isn’t even working in that area, it’s a sign he will be backing up other perimeter receivers this season.
Tyler Shough (QB – NO)
- ECR: 289 (QB4 among rookies)
Where should we start with rookie Tyler Shough? Injuries, age, team offensive environment, quarterback competition, team motivation or inconsistency? All of these have been a problem or are an ongoing problem for Tyler Shough, who is competing for the starting job in New Orleans.
Shough is already 26 years old and is trying to win a starting job in New Orleans for head coach Kellen Moore. Moore has already stated he wants the Saints to be the fastest team in the league this year. That does not bode well for a player like Shough, who is trying to learn the NFL life while also absorbing a complex and fast-paced offense.
There is no guarantee Shough will even win this job. Even if he is good enough to take it, there is no guarantee New Orleans will give it to him. Their goal is to be bad this year. Shough may have some decent weapons to throw to on the Saints, and we know he has great arm strength. But his team environment, coupled with his competition and injury history (collarbone, fibula, etc.), pushes him outside my draft board.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
