Draft day is all about finding value and avoiding costly mistakes – and Average Draft Position (ADP) is one of the best tools to help you do both. By comparing where players are being drafted to their projected production, fantasy football managers can spot potential steals and sidestep landmines. To give you a winning edge for 2025 drafts, we’ve gathered 30 players experts draft and avoid at ADP from our collection of Featured Pros experts. This list highlights the players our analysts are targeting at their current ADP, as well as the ones they’re avoiding, so you can make smarter picks and build a championship-ready roster.
Players Fantasy Football Experts Draft & Avoid at ADP
Who is a player you’re TARGETING in drafts based on his current ADP (top-150) and why?
Calvin Ridley (WR – TEN)
“While Calvin Ridley is the WR32 and 71.3 overall in the ADP, the veteran is one of my favorite draft targets this season. Many believe he will be this year’s Terry McLaurin – a veteran having a career season thanks to a massive upgrade at quarterback. Last year, Ridley was significantly better with Mason Rudolph starting than with Will Levis. He averaged more half-point PPR fantasy points per game (12 vs. 8.9), a higher yards per route run (2.46 vs. 1.81), and nearly twice as many receiving yards per contest (84 vs. 49.8) with the veteran quarterback. Furthermore, the Titans let Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and his team-high nine receiving touchdowns from last season leave in free agency, replacing him with an over-the-hill Tyler Lockett and a pair of Day 3 rookies. Ridley has massive fantasy upside with Cam Ward under center and no meaningful target competition, making him a value as a mid-range WR3.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)
“Calvin Ridley is going as WR30 in ADP (72nd overall), yet he has finished as WR27 or better in every season he’s played at least 13 games. I love targeting players being drafted near their floor rather than their ceiling. Ridley already seems to be building a strong connection with new QB Cam Ward. The two connected for three catches and 50 yards (accounting for 74.6% of Ward’s passing yards) in their first preseason game together.”
– Brady Auer (BA Sports Podcast)
“Calvin Ridley is a steal at his ADP. He’s turned in two straight 1,000-yard seasons and did it last year with Will Levis and Mason Rudolph as his quarterbacks. Now he gets to play with No. 1 overall draft pick Cam Ward, who likes to push the ball downfield. Ridley also has a chance to finish top 10 in targets, since the Titans don’t have any other prominent, established pass catchers on the roster.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Travis Etienne Jr. (RB – JAC)
“Travis Etienne Jr. has a current ADP of RB33 and is just one season removed from being the RB6 in FPPG. Last season, Etienne played through shoulder and hamstring injuries. Tank Bigsby will be involved in the offense, but we saw what Liam Coen could do with multiple viable backs in Tampa Bay last season. Etienne has top-15 FPPG upside at the position if he can stay healthy.”
– Nick Penticoff (Fantasy Football Astronauts)
Baker Mayfield (QB – TB)
“Baker Mayfield is a mid-round quarterback I’m targeting in every draft based on his current ADP. He finished as the QB4 last season with 365.8 fantasy points and now enters 2025 with an even stronger supporting cast: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Jalen McMillan, Emeka Egbuka, and receiving tight end Cade Otton. Mayfield’s ADP sits at 67 overall (QB7), giving you a shot at a proven QB1 in the sixth or seventh round. He’s coming off a 4,500-yard, 41-touchdown campaign and joins the exclusive 4,500/40/70% club for passing efficiency. With continuity in Tampa Bay and elite weapons at every level, Mayfield is a draft-day steal with top-five upside.”
– Lawrence Iacona (Gridiron Experts)
DK Metcalf (WR – PIT)
“I’m targeting Steelers’ wide receiver DK Metcalf at his current ADP of 48.0 (WR21) because he’s primed for a massive 2025 season with the Steelers’ revamped offense. Pittsburgh’s upgraded quarterback situation and aggressive passing scheme should maximize Metcalf’s elite athleticism and deep-threat ability, boosting his target volume. His physical dominance, speed, and red-zone prowess make him a steal at this mid-round price, with potential to deliver top-10 WR production. At 28, he’s in his prime, and his ADP feels undervalued for a player with his proven big-play upside. ”
– Aaron St Denis (Fantasy Sports Advice Network)
Jordan Mason (RB – MIN)
“Jordan Mason is going off the boards at pick 87 in the redraft. Love the upside with the offensive line improvements and the situation on this offense. This was a stacked draft class, and Minnesota only had a few picks, but still prioritized Mason. Would not be surprised if he ended up with double-digit touchdowns, and the upside is huge if Aaron Jones were to miss time. Pairs really well if you need an RB late and go early TE with Bowers or McBride.”
– David Heilman (Sports Gambling Podcast Network)
Ricky Pearsall (WR – SF)
“I am all aboard the Ricky Pearsall train. Brandon Aiyuk will miss several weeks, and Jauan Jennings will miss time, too. Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, and Pearsall will see all the targets they can handle in the first half of the season and even beyond. His WR43 is a steal as we head into the thick of draft season. If the sophomore receiver can stay healthy, there is an easy WR3 finish to be had.”
– Zach Greubel (Gridiron Experts)
“After averaging 15.4 Half-PPR points per game over the final three games of last season, Ricky Pearsall now finds himself in a position to potentially enter the season as the 49ers’ WR1. Between Deebo leaving, Aiyuk having no timeline to return from his ACL injury, and Jennings reaggregating a calf injury from earlier this offseason, very little is standing in the former first-rounder’s way. He also has contingent upside to become even more necessary to the offense should Kittle or McCaffery get injured. Coach Kyle Shanahan, known for being a straight-shooter, has praised Pearsall for his performance throughout camp. Combine all this with the easiest schedule in the league, and his WR43 price tag feels like pure upside.”
– Charlie Sisian (The Fantasy DC)
Jameson Williams (WR – DET)
“Jameson Williams at WR27 and 63 overall is a screaming value. Williams was WR19 in total points in 2024, despite missing two games due to a PED suspension and two other games under 10 scrimmage yards. Williams is a special athlete with a blue chip pedigree, and the departure of Ben Johnson brings a fresh set of eyes to playcalling. Williams can score on any play in an offensive environment that has established itself as worth targeting.”
– Jeff Bell (Footballguys)
Darnell Mooney (WR – ATL)
“Whatever Michael Penix becomes (QB finishes of 30, 25, and 4 in three starts to end the season), I would like to find out in the least devastating way possible. That means passing on London, who goes inside the Top 20 overall, and taking Darnell Mooney instead. Mooney has faded in drafts after a late July shoulder injury, an injury that he should be cleared from before the regular season. With eight 10+ point weeks, Mooney showed every week flex potential in his first season with Atlanta. He should thrive as the third option for Atlanta if Michael Penix is the answer. If Penix is not? I’ve only wasted a late pick finding out.”
– Seth Miller (Crossroads Fantasy Football)
Drake London (WR – ATL)
“Drake London. The Falcons’ superstar WR is routinely being selected in the back half of Round 2 as the WR9 (19th overall). But I would happily reach for Drake London in Round 1 if that were the only way I could guarantee him on my roster. He’s not even 24 years old yet, coming off a Year 3 performance featuring 100 catches, 1,271 yards & 9 TDs. And he’s got one fantasy cheat code working in his favor as well: red-zone targets. In 2024, Drake London had 23 red-zone targets (T-3rd in NFL) and 14 end-zone targets (Top-10). The Falcons’ WR leads the league in red-zone target rate over the last 3 seasons. And London wasn’t just a TD threat – he was a target hog. 3rd-highest target rate per route run (30%). And now he’s tied to QB Michael Penix Jr. With Penix under center late in the year, London had a 41% target rate on his routes. If Penix levels up in Year 2, look out for London.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
Braelon Allen (RB – NYJ)
“My original pick was Omarion Hampton (I’m targeting him too), but I changed it in light of some of the buzz I’m hearing. Jets head coach Aaron Glenn has hinted at an RBBC, comprising Breece Hall and Braelon Allen, where Allen gets the short-yardage and potential goal-line touches. Glenn said, “With Braelon, a 240-pound man that’s always falling forward. Listen, that’s where he’s going to make his money.” And this just in, per Tony Pauline of Sportskeeda, people close to this situation think Breece Hall might be moved before the trade deadline. If that happens, Allen’s stock gets a major boost. My best guess is Allen would be the primary RB in an RBBC with Isaiah Davis. However, there’s a world where Braelon Allen becomes a rare bell cow RB, and those players are very valuable in fantasy football, especially on a run-heavy team, which the Jets figure to be. So with a current overall ADP at 155th, Ringo is going to take a Babe Ruth home run swing in the Empire State, and hope for some late-round magic.”
– Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)
Omarion Hampton (RB – LAC)
“Omarion Hampton is a player that I was very high on during the rookie draft season. Then, I sat back and reflected on how the Chargers and Jim Harbaugh could use both running backs, and my thoughts began to wane for redraft leagues. That is, until the Fourth of July, when Najee Harris had a fireworks accident and has been sidelined since, even though initial reports said it was a minor incident. The Chargers are a run-first team, and Hampton is getting all the first-team work, which will lead into the season where he could truly be a bellcow running back, making him an amazing player to target in the late 3rd/early 4th rounds (currently #37 overall)!”
– Adam Dove (The Fantasy Couriers)
D’Andre Swift (RB – CHI)
“My biggest target this season is D’Andre Swift in Chicago. He’s currently got an ADP of 57 overall, so near the end of the 5th round of drafts. I’m fine grabbing in the 4th to make sure he’s on my roster. I think Ben Johnson will utilize him in the Gibbs role, and due to the lack of try competition behind him, he could also secure the Montgomery role. In PPR leagues, I expect Swift to be a top 15 RB, but his ceiling is even higher than that.”
– Andrew Hall (FantasyPros)
Jaylen Waddle (WR – MIA)
“The Draft Sharks ADP Market Index shows no player going at a stronger value point than Jaylen Waddle. His WR32 ADP basically ignores his first three pro seasons, when Waddle finished 21st, 13th, and 22nd in half-PPR points per game. Yeah, last year sucked. But what’s more likely: this 26-year-old already peaked, or he dealt with team issues at QB and play design in an outlier fourth year? I’ll go ahead and bet that Miami works to rebound Waddle’s usage this year. And the truly exciting part: Waddle’s age plus Tyreek Hill‘s (31) combine to increase the chances we haven’t even seen the young guy’s ceiling yet. And that Tua issue? That’s absorbed into his disrespectful ADP.”
– Matt Schauf (Draft Sharks)
Tetairoa McMillan (WR – CAR)
“Tetairoa McMillan at player overall 64 and WR28 is a crime. It is the Carolina Panthers, yes, but this is a receiver that has top-15 written all over him. He comes to an offense that has been in desperate need of an X receiver for Bryce Young. They now have that, and then some. McMillan should walk to 120-130 targets minimum in year one, and could stumble onto 8 TDs minimum by accident. McMillan, my WR19, is a steal at his current valuation.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)
Who is a player you’re AVOIDING in drafts based on his current ADP (top-150) and why?
DJ Moore (WR – CHI)
“Many were afraid to draft DJ Moore last year after the Bears added Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze in the offseason. However, the former Maryland star finished the year as the WR16, averaging 11.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per game despite playing on a dysfunctional offense. Unfortunately, fantasy players should avoid drafting Moore at his WR20 and 47.3 overall ADP. The veteran will have even more target competition this season than last year after Chicago used their top two picks in the 2025 NFL Draft on Colston Loveland and Luther Burden III. More importantly, Moore has had a rocky offseason, reportedly having issues with Ben Johnson. Meanwhile, Odunze could break out and be the Bears’ No. 1 wide receiver in 2025. Fantasy players should target DK Metcalf, Tetairoa McMillan, and Xavier Worthy with a later ADP over Moore.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)
Brian Thomas Jr. (WR – JAC)
“I think Brian Thomas Jr. is a phenomenal talent, but his current ADP of WR8 is too rich for me, given the type of usage we’re likely to see from Travis Hunter in the offense. I believe we would be drafting BTJ at his ceiling. While I still think he can finish as a top-15 player in FPPG, I would rather draft someone like De’Von Achane or Drake London in that range, as I believe they have a higher ceiling.”
– Nick Penticoff (Fantasy Football Astronauts)
Caleb Williams (QB – CHI)
“Caleb Williams is a player I’m avoiding at his current ADP of 108 (QB15), which feels inflated given his volatile rookie season. Despite throwing for 3,541 yards and 20 touchdowns, he finished as the QB16 with just 254.5 fantasy points and showed troubling traits like poor pocket presence and holding the ball too long. Chicago added weapons like Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland, but the offense remains unproven, and the line allowed a league-high 68 sacks last year. Even with new head coach Ben Johnson calling plays, Williams is a boom-or-bust pick who hasn’t earned fantasy trust. Unless every other viable QB is off the board and I’m forced to take a flier as insurance, I’m not touching him.”
– Lawrence Iacona (Gridiron Experts)
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DET)
“I’m avoiding Lions receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown at his ADP of 11.0 (WR5) due to the high likelihood of regression for the Lions’ offense in 2025. Detroit’s explosive 2024 season set a high bar, but their touchdown output is likely to drop by at least 10, given defensive adjustments and key losses on the offensive line. St. Brown’s elite target volume may dip with increased competition from teammates like Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta, diluting his production. His WR5 price assumes sustained dominance, but regression risks make him overvalued compared to other top-tier options.”
– Aaron St Denis (Fantasy Sports Advice Network)
Travis Hunter (WR, CB – JAC)
“Travis Hunter is going off the board as pick 64 in FFPC. I am avoiding him at that cost. I understand the upside, but he is a better best-ball play than a redraft play for me. Too many good players that I am more confident in for weekly consistency in this range. You are drafting starters at pick 64, and he is not someone I feel confident in starting Week 1.”
– David Heilman (Sports Gambling Podcast Network)
Brandon Aiyuk (WR – SF)
“This was easy. Avoid Ashton Jeanty at all costs with his first-round ADP. I’m kidding, of course. I just wanted to get it on the preseason overreactions. It has to be Pearsall’s teammate – Brandon Aiyuk. His status remains vague, but we know he will miss time. It has been posited that Aiyuk could be out until as long as Week 10, but the 49ers are reportedly eyeing a Week 6 return. I just can’t draft the guy, even if he has a WR49 ADP.”
– Zach Greubel (Gridiron Experts)
Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND)
“Jonathan Taylor – The Colts are currently projected for the seventh-fewest points in the NFL. As a non-pass-catching back, Taylor essentially has one path to paying off his mid-2nd round ADP – touchdowns, something that may be hard to come by for his offense. Taylor was a hero during the fantasy playoffs last year – averaging 30.3 Half-PPR points per game. This finish, which came on the back of an unsustainable 31.67 rushes per game against three of the worst teams in the league last year, potentially distorted many people’s view of what was otherwise a fine, but not special, season from Taylor (RB19 per game in weeks 1-15). JT is a special player who certainly could prove me wrong, but other RBs going behind (ex. Bucky Irving, Chase Brown) seem to have more outs to fantasy success.”
– Charlie Sisian (The Fantasy DC)
Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS)
“Terry McLaurin requires a fourth-round commitment as WR18. That may be worth more than the Commanders are willing to invest. McLaurin has one Top 10 finish, one Top 15 finish, and has finished outside the WR20 in four other seasons. Jayden Daniels easily gives him the best quarterback play of his career, but the Commanders have drawn a hard line with McLaurin. There is too much talent on the board at McLaurin’s ADP to invest in the uncertainty.”
– Jeff Bell (Footballguys)
Drake London (WR – ATL)
“I’m risk-averse with early-round picks. A (albeit awesome) three-game sample of Drake London playing with Michael Penix isn’t enough for me to make the pick as WR9. We are yet to see what mid-season adjustments might look like against Penix and how that will affect the offense. I generally try to avoid the unknown in my first three rounds of fantasy drafts. That means passing on Drake London and taking known commodities like A.J. Brown, Trey McBride, or even grabbing a top-tier QB (all currently going after London in 1-QB).”
– Seth Miller (Crossroads Fantasy Football)
Quinshon Judkins (RB – CLE)
“I seriously don’t understand why Quinshon Judkins is going so high – he’s currently 86th in ADP. He hasn’t signed with the Browns and was arrested in July on a domestic violence charge. There are way too many red flags. Meanwhile, you can get Jerome Ford at 140th in ADP or Dylan Sampson at 157th. I’d be comfortable taking Ford anywhere after pick 105.”
– Brady Auer (BA Sports Podcast)
Breece Hall (RB – NYJ)
“Breece Hall is still being valued pretty high for a guy who is no longer a bell cow RB. In fact, Jets head coach Aaron Glenn has hinted at an RBBC, comprising Hall and Braelon Allen, where Allen gets the short-yardage and potential goal-line touches. Glenn said, “With Braelon, a 240-pound man that’s always falling forward. Listen, that’s where he’s going to make his money.” In addition, it’s hard to imagine Hall’s reception total going up without Aaron Rodgers at QB. Justin Fields is younger and faster, and much more likely to take off and run when there is pressure rather than dumping off a pass to his RB in the flat. And this just in, per Tony Pauline of Sportskeeda, people close to this situation think Hall might be moved before the trade deadline, which could be good or bad news for his fantasy outlook, depending on where he ends up. Hall’s 2025 fantasy outlook seems risky given the uncertainty and his expensive price tag (current ADP at RB 13).”
– Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)
Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA)
“Don’t draft Tyreek Hill. The Dolphins’ WR is one of the riskiest early-round picks in fantasy football, ranking as the WR12 (28th overall). He finished last season as WR33 in points per game, with just two 100-yard games alongside a healthy Tua Tagovailoa (11 games as WR18 in PPG) – a far cry from the elite production fantasy managers drafted him for. His efficiency cratered, with yards per route run dropping to 1.75 – less than half his 2023 mark – all while battling a wrist injury. Now 31, Hill is approaching the dreaded age cliff for speed-reliant receivers, and a late-season sideline outburst only adds to the concerns about his role/stability in Miami. Early reports have indicated that he is still working to rebuild his relationship with his QB and his teammates, while trade rumors for the Cheetah have also gained steam in recent weeks. The game-breaking upside might still be there, but the red flags around health, team chemistry, and declining performance make Hill a logical bust candidate that should be avoided at this high of a cost.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
“Tough to choose between Tyreek Hill and Jonathan Taylor, but the situation brewing in Miami just does not feel right. Hill already wanted out after last year, only for those cracks to be smoothed over for now. Headed into 2025, Miami feels on the brink of a full-blown blowup, and that is a situation that is best to be avoided. Hill, currently the WR12 in half-ADP, is simply too expensive and comes with way too much downside than in previous seasons to warrant such an investment in 2025.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)
Saquon Barkley (RB – PHI)
“Saquon Barkley had a season for the ages last year! If not for sitting out week 17, he would be in the record books! Currently, his ADP is #2 overall, and that scares me! I hope he has a great year, but historically, this has not proven to be the case. He has many factors not in his favor, including the fact that he is in his age 28 season, has only played two complete seasons in his career (rookie and I am counting last year), and statistically, many running backs coming off of a 400+ touch season see a decline in production the next year. Add to all those reasons that teams will more than likely move their focus to the run game and challenge Hurts to beat them through the air (and he is on the cover of Madden). Do I see Barkley dropping to RB30, no, but I do have enough trepidation that I am avoiding drafting him as a top 5 pick in redraft leagues when players like Bijan Robison, Ja’Marr Chase, and Jahmyr Gibbs are available and in great positions to be the anchors for fantasy teams.”
– Adam Dove (The Fantasy Couriers)
Rashee Rice (WR – KC)
“I just can’t find myself drafting Rashee Rice at all this year. His ADP of 49 seems way too early to me. By the time I’m ready to draft him, he’s been gone for multiple rounds. Not only am I worried about his availability due to the legal issues he’s facing, but he’s not necessarily the most durable player either. Patrick Mahomes could very easily just decide to ignore him, too, since he’s got Xavier Worthy and Travis Kelce in that offense as well. If you want to take a risk, that’s fine, but at Rice’s price, that’s way too expensive for me.”
– Andrew Hall (FantasyPros)
Joe Mixon (RB – HOU)
“I consider Joe Mixon completely undraftable, and yet he has an ADP in the low-end RB2 range. This foot injury he’s dealing with is alarming. It’s the sort of thing that could lead to a long absence and perhaps linger all season. Plus, the Texans might have the worst offensive line in the league, and rookie Woody Marks could steal some of Mixon’s passing-down work. The red flags are a-flyin’.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB – DET)
“Jahmyr Gibbs is an awesome player. But y’all are just ignoring reality by taking him in the middle of Round 1 (or even earlier). Gibbs exploited two key factors in his terrific 2024 finish: 1) David Montgomery went down. Gibbs tied for just 20th in expected half-PPR points per game through 14 weeks with a healthy Monty. That jumped to 4th from the injury game on. 2) Detroit got lucky on offense. The Lions’ 4.0 offensive TDs per game were the most since the 2018 Chiefs (4.1), and only two other teams have reached that mark since 2010. All three dipped in TD production the following year. Detroit’s compounding the challenge by switching OCs after three years under Ben Johnson. So Gibbs will almost certainly see less work vs. last year’s hot streak. His team will almost certainly score less. Yet you’re so sure he can keep it going that you’ll take him in the first half of Round 1? Easy pass for me.”
– Matt Schauf (Draft Sharks)
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