For a game that seemed to be a questionable choice for Monday Night Football, given where both of these teams were entering the 2025 season, we should be in for a good one on Monday with the San Francisco 49ers hosting the upstart Carolina Panthers in a game that could be important for playoff positioning.
Both teams are coming off crucial divisional wins that have improved their playoff odds. San Francisco defeated the Cardinals in Week 11, keeping them in the playoff picture as the No. 7 seed, while the Panthers completed their sweep of the Falcons last week to keep up despite being on the outside looking in. According to the NFL.com playoff picture, Monday’s game will be crucial for both teams: a win for the 49ers would improve their playoff chances to 91 percent, while a loss for Carolina would drop their odds to a measly 13 percent.
Either way, meaningful football in late November is always exciting, and that’s what we will get on Monday night in Santa Clara. Here are some numbers to know for the Monday night clash:
The Panthers average 1.86 points per drive, the eighth-lowest average in the league.
For the second week in a row, the 49ers will face an offense in the top five in plays per drive. And while Carolina runs just about the same number of plays per drive as the Cardinals do – Carolina runs 6.4 plays per drive compared to Arizona’s 6.5 – the Panthers score much less frequently than the 49ers’ Week 11 opponent.
The Panthers are one of 10 teams that average fewer than 2 points per drive, with New Orleans and Atlanta – two teams the 49ers have already faced – and Cleveland and Tennessee – the 49ers’ next two opponents after Carolina – among them. The 49ers allowed 21 points back in Week 2 to New Orleans with a fully healthy defense, while holding Atlanta to 10 in Week with a less-than-healthy defense.
Carolina has struggled to consistently get on the board this season, scoring less than 14 points in five games, going 1-4 in those games. The lone win of the bunch came in Week 7 when they defeated the New York Jets – one of the seven teams that average fewer points per drive than Carolina – by a score of 13-6.
While the Panthers have some solid offensive pieces, like Rico Dowdle and Tetairoa McMillan, they have struggled to put points on the board. It shouldn’t come as a surprise, but if the 49ers’ defense can hold Carolina to under 14 points, you have to like their chances (duh).
Carolina’s defense allows 4.4 yards per attempt, the 12th-worst in the league.
And the Carolina run defense has been struggling, especially in recent weeks. It’s a defense that’s allowed more than 100 rushing yards in each of their last four games after only allowing three such games over the first seven weeks of the season. They’ve also allowed four yards per attempt in four of their last five games, with James Cook and Bijan Robinson eclipsing 100 rushing yards in that span.
While Christian McCaffrey is still having consistency struggles in the run game, still sitting at a career-low 3.7 yards per attempt (matching his rookie year output), it feels like he’s turned a corner. While the Rams and Texans held McCaffrey to a combined 55 rushing yards, McCaffrey had 129 yards against Atlanta, 106 against the Giants, and 81 against Arizona last week, placing his three best games on the ground this season in the previous five games.
While his 81 against Arizona is the fewest rushing yards of the three, his performance last week might have been his most impressive of the season. McCaffrey averaged a season-high 6.2 yards per attempt against Arizona, seemingly ripping a big run every time he touched the ball, including the first 20-yard run of the season for the 49ers. He also added two rushing touchdowns, matching his season-high, which also came in his 129-yard performance against the Falcons.
Carolina’s defense is trending in the wrong direction, while McCaffrey has seemed to get in a flow in the run game. That alone could mean another big game on the ground for McCaffrey after a slow first six games of the season for the running back.
The Panthers are 1-3 versus teams with a .500 or better record, with an average point differential of -18.75.
Carolina has been one of the feel-good stories of the 2025 season. After winning a combined seven games in 2023 and 2024, the Panthers enter Monday night at 6-5 with a chance to match that win total. But a closer look at their schedule shows Carolina has taken advantage of weaker opponents (which isn’t a bad thing).
The Panthers’ six wins have come against the Falcons (twice), Dolphins, Cowboys, Jets, and Packers, with only one of those teams being over .500. The four games against teams currently at .500 or better have come against the Jaguars (lost by 16), Patriots (lost by 29), Bills (lost by 31), and Packers (won by 3). The 49ers will be Carolina’s fifth chance against a .500 or better squad.
Now, the same can be said for the 49ers, who are currently sitting at 7-4. Only two of the 49ers’ seven wins have come against teams .500 or better, with their Week 1 win against Seattle and the Week 5 overtime win against the Rams, going 2-4 in their six games against teams over .500. The difference between Carolina and San Francisco, however, is that the 49ers have been much more competitive in their games against better teams. In the six games, the 49ers’ average point differential is -6 points, much more competitive than Carolina has been.
Something will have to give for both teams, who are over .500 but struggling against better opponents. The 49ers have been closer in their games than Carolina has, which could give them a better chance of winning on Monday.
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