From a big-picture standpoint, New England has one of the easiest strengths of schedules in recent NFL memory based on the cumulative DVOA of their future opponents. If they build on the momentum from wins over the Panthers and Bills, the Patriots can get on a roll here. That said, complacency is their biggest enemy with their next three opponents, the Saints, Titans, and Browns, combining for a 3-12 record in the season’s first five weeks. On Sunday, we’ll find out if the Pats can avoid falling into the trap, which would say a lot about the football program in Foxboro.
Here are three keys to victory for the Patriots in their trip to New Orleans to take on the Saints with kickoff at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday.
Patriots Offense Key: Prep for Saints Match Zone Coverages and Schemed Pressures
In a role reversal, first-year head coach Kellen Moore tabbed former Chargers coach Brandon Staley as his defensive coordinator with the Saints.
Moore was Staley’s offensive coordinator for one season when Staley was the Chargers head coach. The new Saints DC became a sought-after defensive guru as the Rams coordinator under Sean McVay during Los Angeles’s run to a Super Bowl title in the 2021 season. Staley is one of the early adopters of basing his defense out of two-high safety shells on first and second down to load up vs. the pass while conceding the run, which some thought was analytically driven as the NFL turned pass-heavy.
With the Rams, Staley’s defense was sixth in DVOA due to a terrific defensive line led by future Hall of Famer Aaron Donald. Donald and company could play a man short in the box because they were good enough to cover up for having fewer bodies to stop the run. However, Staley’s defensive lines with the Chargers weren’t as dominant as his Rams defenses, so LA was routinely among the NFL’s worst run defenses.
Although he didn’t work out as a head coach, Staley’s a bright, defensive mind with some successful game plans against high-powered offenses. Plus, the arrow is pointing upward on this Saints defense. They were pesky against the Bills until Josh Allen put the game away late and forced five turnovers in their win over the Giants last week. Most notably, New Orleans has athletic linebackers led by Pro Bowler DeMario Davis, and bookend pass-rushers in Cameron Jordan and Carl Granderson.
Schematically, Staley is still running his 3-4 defense with a zone-match coverage system that plays out of lighter boxes. The Saints are among the league leaders in disguised pressure usage, calling a schemed pressure on 9.1% of their drop-backs. They also major in zone-match coverages, meaning they’re matching vertical routes while converting to spot-drop zones when receivers break underneath the defense.
“The Saints do a good job of matching. They’re going to play some zone and then play some two-deep. When they go to post-safety, they’re going to match our routes, and they’re good at playing the football,” Maye told reporters this week. “I think it changes, more of a receiver mentality. Instead of depth and spacing, winning versus match coverage, winning versus man, and winning your one-on-ones is what it comes down to. It comes down to, for me, ball placement, get it out on time and making sure the football is in the right spot for them to catch and run or catch and make a play.”
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