Almost all eyes are on an increasingly tight playoff race as the NFL heads into its loaded Thanksgiving slate. But several teams have fallen off the playoff watchlist, meaning they can start digging in deeper on the 2026 NFL Draft class.
With six weeks to go in the regular season, The Athletic’s NFL Simulator now gives the Tennessee Titans a 46 percent chance of landing the No. 1 pick for a second consecutive draft, followed by the Las Vegas Raiders (17 percent) and New York Jets (15 percent).
We take a look at how the top 10 picks could unfold.
1. Tennessee Titans: Arvell Reese, edge, Ohio State
Reese has split his time almost evenly between playing in the box and on the edge this season, and he’s been equally destructive across the board. This is the 2026 NFL Draft’s best Micah Parsons clone. The data is limited, but Reese’s ceiling looks incredible.
Arvell Reese is QB nightmare fuel 😈@OhioStateFB pic.twitter.com/yFmlmkKBzV
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) October 11, 2025
2. Las Vegas Raiders: Keldric Faulk, edge, Auburn
Based on traits (and position) alone, we probably can’t take Faulk out of the No. 1 pick discussion. Theoretically, the 6-foot-6, 270-pounder can do it all, from zero- to nine-technique. Faulk is a very young player with immense potential, so his pre-draft process could be huge.
QB is also a possibility for the Raiders, but I’m not ready just yet to slot one in the top five.
3. New York Jets: Caleb Downs, DB, Ohio State
The Jets need everything. So, although Downs — a safety by trade who can play corner, slot or even sub linebacker — might scare people from a positional-value standpoint, he is still my favorite player, pound for pound, in the class. He’s a potential culture-changer.
4. New Orleans Saints: Rueben Bain Jr., edge, Miami
Bain (6-3, 275) can be a tough evaluation. He still runs pretty hot and cold from a consistency standpoint, but he has an argument as the best edge in this class when the green light is on.
The Raiders, Saints and Jets all could be in the QB market, so Ty Simpson, Fernando Mendoza or Dante Moore remain on the board here, too.
5. New York Giants: Spencer Fano, OT, Utah
Fano’s athletic potential keeps him as OT1 for now. If you want to see how big of an impact he can have, go watch Utah’s recent 51-47 win over Kansas State. The Utes ran 50 times for 292 yards, with plenty of those attempts coming right behind their star junior.
6. Arizona Cardinals: Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama
It’s going to be another wild winter/spring cycle for prospective NFL quarterbacks. Simpson has been the best processor in the class, by a bit, but this is still just his first season as a starter. A long playoff run could go a long way here.
7. Washington Commanders: Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State
I’ve had Jordyn Tyson as my WR1 for most of the season, and though I’m still a huge fan, it’s important to note he’s not a lock to claim that spot. Tyson has missed a lot of time in his career because of injury, including this season. It’s not unlike Puka Nacua’s situation coming out of BYU.
Tate, meantime, has been a revelation for the Buckeyes. He gets better every time out.
8. Cleveland Browns: Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana
As with Simpson, a big playoff run against top-end defenses could go a long way toward easing some of the inconsistency/lack of data questions scouts have about Mendoza. Both quarterbacks feel like high-floor passers — they might not rewrite the NFL record book, but they’ll absolutely play winning football.
9. Minnesota Vikings: Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame
There will be a number of conversations about areas of need if Minnesota finishes the year in the top 10, as J.J. McCarthy’s hardly having a great time right now.
For my money, Love is your 2025 Heisman winner. An elite football player, Love — like Downs — is worth the positional-value debates.
10. Miami Dolphins: Francis Mauigoa, OT, Miami
From Miami to … Miami. This would be a great fit, not only because the Dolphins remain absolutely desperate for more toughness in the trenches on both sides of the football, but also because Mauigoa is exactly the type of culture-setter who could help give Miami’s locker room an actual identity.
