Hey, remember when I joked around last week and had the Jets as my number five D/ST to add (kinda joking)? Well, the process turned out to be right as Gang Green finished as the #2 unit (pending MNF). Even when we’re screwing around, we’re hitting on plays. If you played the Jets D/ST, send me a screenshot and I’ll give you a shoutout.
The Browns, who were everyone’s darlings last week, were total duds. They scored just five points because, as we’ve said several times in this article, they are a good real-life defense, but stink for fantasy. Carolina, who had a great matchup with the Saints, also gave us just five points. That’s not great.
The higher-owned options last week, Seattle and Houston, both crushed, with 21 and 14 points, respectively. That happens as you get deeper into the season. The better defenses are owned, and fantasy players aren’t as quick to drop someone who’s a top-5 squad on the year. Finding top plays at less than 50% ownership will become more and more difficult, but that’s my job. This week, we might make a few exceptions because ownership numbers for many teams are hovering in the 50s, so they may be available in your leagues.
That said, this article becomes even more important, as we need to exploit matchups and find every edge possible.
TEAMS ON BYE IN WEEK 11: Colts and Saints
Based on D/STs owned in ~50% of Yahoo leagues
Drake’s Top 6 D/ST Targets for Week 10
- New England Patriots (NE, 57%) vs NYJ
- Atlanta Falcons (ATL, 11%) vs CAR
- Green Bay Packers (GB, 58%) @ NYG
- Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT, 58%) vs CIN
- Baltimore Ravens (BAL, 54%) @ CLE
- Chicago Bears (CHI, 28%) @ MIN
Higher-owned Options
Houston Texans (HOU, 75%) @ TEN — It’s the Titans. Do you need the blurb? I’ll say this: over their last two games, the Titans have only allowed 5 and 7 points each. They are still the number one team in points allowed to opposing D/STs. Tennessee has allowed at least four sacks in four straight and seven of nine games. Houston is coming off a five-sack performance in Week 10. Ride the Texans if you’ve got them.
Los Angeles Chargers (LAC, 61%) @ JAX — Trevor Lawrence was sacked five times on Sunday. In three of four games, the Jags have given up double-digit points to their opponent. This Chargers unit has turned a corner in its last three games. Jim Harbaugh’s boys haven’t allowed over 221 total yards in any of those contests. That’s incredible for an NFL defense. The Jags don’t have very many weapons to challenge the Bolts’ defense, so I like LA to have another big day.
Top Targets
New England Patriots (NE, 57%) vs NYJ — Justin Fields is the worst quarterback in the NFL. That’s hard to do in a league with Tyler Shough, Bryce Young, and Russell Wilson getting starts. Here’s the issue with Fields: they rarely throw the ball (11 attempts in Week 10), so for him to turn the ball over, the Patriots need to get out and take a big early lead. I don’t think that should be a problem. Fields also won’t have Garrett Wilson in this game, so he’ll be trying to squeeze the ball into fantasy legends such as Mason Taylor, Tyler Johnson, and the ghost of Wayne Chrebet. The only thing the Jets will be able to do is run the ball… oh wait, the Patriots allow an NFL-low 79.2 YPG on the ground. Good luck, Justin!
Atlanta Falcons (ATL, 11%) vs CAR — The Falcons possess the best pass defense in the league. That’s cool, until you realize the Panthers are allergic to the forward pass. If and when the Panthers drop back, they’ll face a pass-rush that ranks top-5 in sacks. The ATL defense has an eye-popping 13 sacks in its last two games. The hope here is that the Panthers don’t gash Atlanta (146.4 YPG) on the ground and are forced to drop back so that Bryce Young can be a professional quarterback. That’s when the kooky hijinks begin. Young hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass since Week 7. His last game with 20 completions was Week 2. If Young has to throw, it’s game over for the Panthers.
Solid Plays
Green Bay Packers (GB, 58%) @ NYG — Jaxson Dart is in the concussion protocol and could miss this game. With the shenanigans the Giants were fined for earlier this year, with players being evaluated, it’s hard to see Dart being rushed back. Add in New York firing Brian Daboll on Monday, and we’re ready for a full-blown disaster in the Jersey swamps. Russell Wilson could start. I don’t need to write anything else. You know what to do.
Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT, 50%) vs CIN — This isn’t that hard. Pittsburgh gets to the quarterback (2nd in QB hits), and Cincinnati’s quarterback, Joe Flacco, can’t move. Simple. I’ll caution you, though, no D/ST has scored over five fantasy points against the Bengals in the Joe Flacco era. We had a glimpse of the old Flacco in Week 9 when he tossed a pair of picks. Maybe knowing his time is limited (Joe Burrow’s practice window opened) will have him playing in full DGAF mode. Regardless, it’s going to be a game where Flacco drops back 40+ times as the Steelers allow the second-most passing yards in the league. What we’re hoping for here is three or four sacks and a couple turnovers. We’ll take that off the waiver wire.
Going Deeper
Baltimore Ravens (BAL, 54%) @ CLE — The Ravens schedule going forward is insane. Their next three games are @ CLE, vs NYJ, and vs CIN. That’s how you get your name in my article week after week. Don’t look now, but this Baltimore D hasn’t allowed 20 points since Week 5. As they get healthier, it’s not hard to see a scenario where the Ravens are again a defense we’re eager to play weekly. The Browns’ special teams just gave up two return touchdowns to the Jets. You don’t think a former special teams coach, John Harbaugh, won’t be licking his chops to attack this crew? Oh, Dillon Gabriel took six sacks on Sunday, too. Ouch.
Chicago Bears (CHI, 28%) @ MIN — This is a bet against J.J. McCarthy. In his two starts since injury, he’s been sacked six times and thrown three picks. The Bears aren’t great, but they play scrappy defense. Honestly, they just play insane games, and I have a feeling this one goes sideways in Minneapolis. I’d rather play someone else, but if you’re desperate or want to use my Jets theory from last week, let’s get nuts.
DSTs Upcoming Schedules of Interest
Baltimore — Weeks 11-15 feature just one matchup against a team ranked outside the top-10 in points allowed to defenses. This is an insane runout starting this week: @ CLE, NYJ, CIN, PIT, @ CIN.
Cleveland — From Week 11 through 14, you could alternate weeks with the Browns and someone else as Cleveland faces: vs BAL, @ LV, vs SF, vs TEN.
Seattle — Here’s your team to alternate with Cleveland. Starting in Week 11: @ LAR, @ TEN, vs MIN, @ ATL.
Atlanta — Solid three-game run from Weeks 11-13 vs CAR, @ NO, and @ NYJ.
San Francisco — You could run with the 49ers from Weeks 11-13 with games @ ARI, vs CAR, and @ CLE, but you can also run blindfolded through traffic and likely get the same feeling. The Niners do host the Titans in the opening round of the fantasy playoffs.
Houston — Houston is a legit bad ass defense. Their schedule is brutal from Weeks 12-14, so you’ll want to find someone else until their juicy playoff schedule hits with matchups starting Week 15: vs ARI, LV, @ LAC.
Tampa Bay — Weeks 13 on, you can set and forget the Bucs DST with three-straight home games against: ARI, NO, ATL, and the fantasy money weeks against @ CAR, @ MIA.
Buffalo — Schedule isn’t great. They’ll be streaming options Week 14 vs CIN and Week 16 @ CLE.
LA Rams — Streamable in Week 13 @ CAR and Week 14 @ ARI.
Jacksonville — D/ST has really fallen off, but they get back-to-back games on the road with ARI in Week 12 and TEN in Week 13. Week 15, the Jags host the Jets.
Pittsburgh — Nice playoff stash and stream option as they’ll host Miami in Week 15 and visit Cleveland for championship week.
Philadelphia — Good way to start the fantasy playoffs at home vs LV, then at the destitute Commanders in Week 16.
New England — Couple of good spots mixed in as they’ll get a three-game stretch vs NYJ, @ CIN, vs NYG starting in Week 11. In championship week, the Pats are at the Jets.
Kansas City — Brutal schedule ROS. The only bright spot is Week 16 @ TEN.
Place Kickers
Higher-owned Options
Will Reichard (Min, 41%) — Reichard has two or more field goals in three of his last four outings. Of his 18 field goals made this year, half of them have been from the bonus range. Chicago comes to Minnesota this week, and the Bears have allowed multiple field goals in three consecutive games. Back on opening day, Reichard made two field goals against the Bears in Chicago.
Top Targets
Cam Little (Jax, 20%) — Little had his second straight game of three converted field goals. Five of his last nine field goals made have been from the bonus range. In his last two games, Little converted a record-setting 68-yard field goal and a 53-yarder last week. Up next are the Chargers. While they have allowed just one field goal conversion in three of their last four games, they did start the season allowing two or more in six straight outings.
Going Deeper
Nick Folk (NYJ, 3%) — Folk converted two or more field goals in eight of his nine games and is currently on a four-game stretch with two or more per game. Of his 19 field goals made, ten of them have been the bonus range variety. If there is a downside to Folk, it will be with his opponent. New England has not allowed more than one converted field goal in three straight games. Yet, they allowed two or more in the previous three consecutive games during Weeks 5 through 8.
