Will Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders really fall from league darling to eight wins in 2025? Is it truly the Buffalo Bills’ turn atop the AFC over the Baltimore Ravens and the Kansas City Chiefs?
The Athletic’s NFL win projection from Austin Mock — the betting model that calculates an expected win total for every team — puts the Commanders at 8.8 wins in 2025 with the Bills (11.2) on top in another tight race among the AFC’s big three. The model’s results this year present more than a few interesting notions for teams across the league. Mock has his full projections for the NFC and AFC and our NFL beat writers react.
Which projections are too low, too high or just right? Read more below.
Arizona Cardinals
Projected wins: 8.7
Verdict: Too low
The Cardinals have trended in the right direction under head coach Jonathan Gannon. From four wins in Year 1 to eight wins last season. The next step is making the playoffs. Arizona is capable. As he enters his seventh season, QB Kyler Murray might have his most complete team around him. He has an elite tight end in Trey McBride, a powerful running back in James Conner and the line is in good shape. Best of all: GM Monti Ossenfort upgraded the defense, particularly the pass rush. Is depth a concern? Yes, especially at corner. Does much depend on Marvin Harrison Jr.’s second-year improvement? Absolutely. But this looks like a team that can contend in the NFC West. — Doug Haller
Atlanta Falcons
Projected wins: 8.2
Verdict: Just right
There is a lot of optimism inside Atlanta’s building, but the reality remains that this team hasn’t won more than eight games in a season since 2017. That’s also the last time it made the playoffs. The burden of proof is on the Falcons. If second-year quarterback Michael Penix Jr. takes a step forward, Atlanta will score enough points to be a fun watch. If an influx of pass-rushing talent results in a defense that makes a few splash plays, the Falcons might prove some people wrong. — Josh Kendall
Baltimore Ravens
Projected wins: 11.0
Verdict: Just right
The Ravens have one of the league’s deepest rosters and it appears they’ll get to Week 1 relatively healthy. They’ve traditionally lost a lot of players and coaches in the offseason, but they experienced very modest change this year, so there are no excuses for a slow start. In the four seasons where Lamar Jackson has started more than 12 regular-season games, the Ravens have averaged 12.5 wins. With the difficulty of the Ravens’ schedule in mind, it’s probably wise to not get too carried away with the win prediction. Eleven feels like a good number. — Jeff Zrebiec
Buffalo Bills
Projected wins: 11.2
Verdict: Too low
Mock’s highest projection might not be high enough. Buffalo has averaged 12.2 wins over five straight AFC East championship campaigns. The division looks lousy again. That’s why Mock gives Buffalo the best chances for any team to make the playoffs. But there’s something about Buffalo that doesn’t seem quite as stable despite all its continuity. The reigning MVP, the offensive line, the front office, the coaching staff remain from last year’s 13-4 team, but question marks swirl around a defense still searching for an identity. If the Bills’ almost certainly unrepeatable 8-32 turnover ratio crashes toward the average, then winning will be significantly harder. — Tim Graham
Carolina Panthers
Projected wins: 6.5
Verdict: About right
When the schedules were released, I predicted the Panthers would build on Bryce Young’s strong finish in 2024 with an 8-9 record in 2025. That might have been a little bullish. I still think Young and the offense continue trending upward. The addition of Tetairoa McMillan will help open the field for Xavier Legette, while Chuba Hubbard and Rico Dowdle should be one of the better RB tandems in the league. GM Dan Morgan spent most of the offseason resources on the defense. Plus, the Panthers get Pro Bowl DL Derrick Brown back. But it will take more than one year to fix the league’s worst defense. — Joseph Person
Chicago Bears
Projected wins: 7.4
Verdict: Just right
This may not go over well in Chicago, where Ben Johnson Fever is commingling with a slightly milder variant of Caleb Williams Mania in 2025. But if the Bears have taught us anything over the years, it’s that summertime stimulation too often turns into fall failure. Now 15 seasons removed from their last playoff victory and looking to post just their second winning season since 2012, the Bears have earned every ounce of “see it to believe it” suspicion. It’s up to Johnson and Williams to change that tune by meeting expectations individually and collectively in their first season together. But in a tough division and with six of eight road games against 2024 playoff teams, the margin for error is thin and the climb remains steep. — Dan Wiederer
Cincinnati Bengals
Projected wins: 10.0
Verdict: Just right
Before watching the preseason games, I would be tempted to say 10 was low. The continuity of an offense that finished top five in nearly every major category last year is overwhelming. They could easily finish as the NFL’s top attack. They merely need the defense to be average. New DC Al Golden built momentum and confidence in camp, but first-team snaps showed just how far they have to go. That group could be coming into its own by November, but with multiple rookies, inexperienced players and leap-year hopefuls in significant roles of a new system, it limits the ceiling of the win total. — Paul Dehner Jr.
Cleveland Browns
Projected wins: 5.4
Verdict: Too high
The Browns might have an elite defense. Cleveland’s offense can’t possibly be worse than it was early last season and late last season. But the early schedule is brutal, and it’s difficult to project a team in transition on multiple fronts to win more than five even if it’s able to pull an upset or two early. The Browns are going to let Joe Flacco fling it until it’s time to pull the plug and play the rookie quarterbacks, and I just don’t see enough roster depth or enough offensive pop for the Browns to become a true surprise team. They’ll be feisty, and ultimately they’ll fade into the reality of the best plan, which is playing for the future and trying to secure a high draft pick for next April — Zac Jackson
Dallas Cowboys
Projected wins: 7.9
Verdict: Just right
A new coaching staff and a potentially brutal back-half of the schedule make me think double-digit wins is wishful thinking. The Cowboys have never had a losing record in a season when Dak Prescott has stayed healthy. So, if you believe the 32-year-old avoids injury in a bounce-back season, maybe nine-plus wins is possible. But there are still several other key questions. What if Micah Parsons isn’t playing because of his contract situation? What if he does play but he’s rusty from not practicing in training camp? Will it take an offense led by Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens time to hit their stride after not playing in the preseason? Will there be adjustments needed that Brian Schottenheimer wasn’t expecting in his first year as a head coach? Around eight wins seems about right. — Jon Machota
Denver Broncos
Projected wins: 9.2
Verdict: Too low
The Broncos had the top-ranked defense in the league last year in terms of EPA per snap and also led the NFL in sacks. They brought back every member of their defensive front and then added linebacker Dre Greenlaw, safety Talanoa Hufanga and first-round defensive back Jahdae Barron. Bo Nix ranked fourth among all quarterbacks in EPA per dropbacks from Week 10 on last season, a figure he compiled without a major threat at tight end or a consistent run game. He now has Evan Engram at tight end and the additions of JK Dobbins and second-round pick RJ Harvey give the Broncos a major upgrade in the backfield. Nix is also in the same system for a second straight year for the first time since high school and that continuity should help Denver improve upon its 1-6 record in one-score games last season. I have the Broncos at 11 wins. — Nick Kosmider
Detroit Lions
Projected wins: 10.2
Verdict: Just right
The Detroit Lions boast one of the league’s most talented rosters, so they could easily surpass 10 wins. However, it’s fair to take a wait-and-see approach into 2025. The Lions lost coordinators Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn to head coaching gigs, as well as All-Pro center Frank Ragnow to retirement. They play in a competitive division and their road schedule features seven playoff teams from 2024. Some slight hesitation is understandable. That said, the Lions expect their defense to take a step forward given the continuity of the group and return of Aidan Hutchinson. While the offensive line incorporates two young starters at guard in Christian Mahogany and Tate Ratledge, the talent at the skill positions remains elite. I might go slightly higher, but this is within range. — Colton Pouncy
Green Bay Packers
Projected wins: 9.8
Verdict: Too low
But not by much. The Packers return much of the same team from a year ago that won 11 games. Their schedule is a gauntlet this season, but the majority of those difficult games on paper are at Lambeau Field (Lions, Vikings, Eagles, Bengals, Ravens). First-round rookie Matthew Golden looks like an instant impact receiver and quarterback Jordan Love — knock on wood — probably won’t play the first half of the season with a bum knee and groin like he did in 2024. The pass rush and secondary are question marks, but Jeff Hafley’s defense ranked fourth in the league with 31 takeaways last season and can cover up flaws by hounding the ball again. — Matt Schneidman
Houston Texans
Projected wins: 8.8
Verdict: Too low
Winners of the AFC South and 10 games in back-to-back seasons, the Texans recognized their glaring weakness (the offensive line) and used both free agency and the draft to address it. They also made a change at offensive coordinator to better maximize C.J. Stroud’s talents. While there could be some growing pains, the Texans will again have a strong defense to lean on. Although the divisional competition may have slightly improved (mainly Jacksonville), Houston remains a favorite to win the division. Another 10-win campaign is a realistic expectation. — Mike Jones
Indianapolis Colts
Projected wins: 7.5
Verdict: Too low
The Colts are 17-17 over the last two years with Anthony Richardson, Gardner Minshew and Joe Flacco at quarterback and a defense that never ranked better than 24th in points allowed per game. I’m not saying Daniel Jones is an upgrade at QB, but the Colts believe if they get steady play at the position, they can be a playoff team thanks to their revamped defense. Indianapolis’ new DC Lou Anarumo, formerly of the Bengals, is known for his exotic play calls, and the Colts gave him some big-time playmakers by signing veteran defensive backs Charvarius Ward and Cam Bynum. — James Boyd
Jacksonville Jaguars
Projected wins: 7.9
Verdict: Just right
The Jaguars should be better under new coach Liam Coen, but it might take about half the season for QB Trevor Lawrence and the offense to get into a groove in the new system. That could be a blessing and a curse, as the first half of the schedule is significantly more difficult than the back end. So, as long as the Jaguars can show the mental fortitude to get through some likely early struggles, they could put pressure on the AFC South, perhaps similar to the run they made in 2022. — Jeff Howe
Kansas City Chiefs
Projected wins: 10.9
Verdict: Just right
If you’re bullish on Kansas City here, you could bring up coach Andy Reid’s history; according to Action Network, Reid has gone 10-2 on his Vegas “over” win total in 12 seasons with the Chiefs. Still, K.C. appeared to get unusually fortunate with last year’s 15-2 campaign, with FTN Football Almanac’s numbers saying last year’s squad was the NFL’s highest overperforming team since the 1970 merger. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has looked great in camp, but there are enough questions here (left side of offensive line, overall depth) to make me think 11-6 is the most likely outcome. — Jesse Newell
Las Vegas Raiders
Projected wins: 7.6
Verdict: Just right
I predicted the Raiders would finish with eight wins earlier this offseason, but that was prior to the release of Christian Wilkins and the realization of how big of an issue the defense is on all three levels. The Raiders have a much better head coach in Pete Carroll and the offense should be improved — the addition of quarterback Geno Smith, running back Ashton Jeanty and offensive coordinator Chip Kelly should all be major upgrades — but the other side of the ball will be what holds this team back. — Tashan Reed
Los Angeles Chargers
Projected wins: 8.5
Verdict: Just right
I had the Chargers at 9-8 in my prediction back in May, and that was before the team lost left tackle Rashawn Slater for the season with a torn patellar tendon. Slater is one of the Chargers’ best players. A lot of their offensive identity and projection was tied into having perhaps the best tackle duo in the league in Slater and Joe Alt. Now Alt moves to left tackle, and Trey Pipkins III enters the lineup as the starting right tackle. The model is correct: Slater’s injury dampens the outlook. And there are other questions with this roster, as the Chargers prepare for a much tougher schedule in 2025 — namely, the interior offensive line and cornerback room. — Daniel Popper
Los Angeles Rams
Projected wins: 9.7
Verdict: Just right
The Rams, of course, have higher expectations than this — Super Bowl-high. That’s why they worked so hard in the offseason to re-sign quarterback Matthew Stafford to what are now year-to-year terms, and executed key extensions and signings in free agency. But Stafford, who had been dealing with an aggravated disc late this summer, just started practicing on Aug. 18 and a 37-year-old quarterback with a back problem is an automatic concern. Plus, NFC West opponents Seattle, Arizona and San Francisco are looking very competitive out of training camp. If things go South with Stafford, Sean McVay may really have to test his theory that he can make a postseason run with backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. — Jourdan Rodrigue
Miami Dolphins
Projected wins: 8.0
Verdict: Just right
The top-end talent is here, as always, but it seems like all of their starters have significant injury concerns. QB Tua Tagovailoa tops the list, of course, but WR Tyreek Hill, RB De’Von Achane, OLB Bradley Chubb and OLB Jaelan Phillips, among others, have struggled to stay on the field to varying degrees. Between those concerns and the depth questions — offensive line, defensive line, secondary — there are just too many ways for thing to go sideways for the Dolphins in 2025. I was tempted to say Mock’s projection was too high, but Miami’s schedule looks fairly light, so projecting a second straight eight-win season seems justified. — Jim Ayello
Minnesota Vikings
Projected wins: 8.3
Verdict: Too low
There is uncertainty at quarterback. The schedule is difficult. Durability, especially among a group of recently-injured free-agent auditions, is going to be essential. But the Vikings have a talented roster. They have play-calling continuity with Kevin O’Connell and Brian Flores. Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason remain an elite group of skill players. A front seven consisting of Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel, Javon Hargrave, Jonathan Allen, Blake Cashman and Ivan Pace Jr. is not nothing. It may take some time for young quarterback J.J. McCarthy to find his footing, but O’Connell’s history tells us they’ll reach a pretty high floor. — Alec Lewis
New England Patriots
Projected wins: 8.4
Verdict: Too high
A year ago, we mentioned 6.7 wins seemed a bit too high before the Pats won four games for a second straight year. And while this number seems closer to what I’d expect, it’s still a bit high for me. There’s plenty of deserved confidence for what could come with Mike Vrabel and Drake Maye, but the rest of the roster doesn’t seem like one that will yield a winning record. While the schedule is easy, I’m too concerned about the offensive line and wide receivers to think they’ll nab more than eight wins — and even eight seems a touch optimistic. — Chad Graff
New Orleans Saints
Projected wins: 5.2
Verdict: Just right
I’m old enough to remember when the Saints’ projected win total could’ve been 5.2 … by mid October. When you have a quarterback room consisting of three players with zero NFL wins as a starter under their belts, there’s a reason why you have a Saints team with the lowest projected win total in the NFC. Honestly 5.2 wins might be too high until either Spencer Rattler (0-6 as a starter last season) or Tyler Shough prove they can guide an NFL team to win at least one game. — Larry Holder
New York Giants
Projected wins: 5.6
Verdict: Just right
The Giants improved their roster, particularly on defense with the additions of edge rusher Abdul Carter, cornerback Paulson Adebo and safety Jevon Holland. The quarterback play with Russell Wilson (and eventually Jaxson Dart) has to be better than the Daniel Jones-Drew Lock-Tommy DeVito disaster of last season. But still, this is a team that won three games last season. Even with the upgrades, it’s difficult to see many wins against the hardest schedule in the league. — Dan Duggan
New York Jets
Projected wins: 6.2
Verdict: Just right
It’s hard to argue with projection when you lay it out, even if I don’t actually think their win total will fall that low. There aren’t many analytics that point to Justin Fields being a starting quarterback who can lead a team to eight-plus wins — because he’s never done it. Fields is ultimately the biggest factor in any expectations you might have for the Jets. If you believe in this coaching staff’s ability to get the most out of him as a passer, this is a team that can win eight or nine games and at least mathematically stay in the playoff hunt because most of the supporting cast would indicate a team that can exceed expectations: quality offensive and defensive lines, high-end talent at linebacker and cornerback, a star wide receiver (Garrett Wilson), talented tight end (Mason Taylor), a solid backfield and a coaching staff that should be an upgrade tactically over the last one. The negative side: Fields still has mostly looked like the same passer he was in Chicago and Pittsburgh, the Jets lack proven pass-catching weapons outside of Wilson and the depth is an issue at spots on the defense. — Zack Rosenblatt
Philadelphia Eagles
Projected wins: 10.9
Verdict: Just right
The Eagles are projected to have the most wins in the NFC, which makes sense for the defending Super Bowl champions who return 10 of 11 starters on offense and have Pro Bowl-caliber players on all three levels of defense. Replacing five starters on defense presents the biggest question mark entering the season. There could be regression from Vic Fangio’s group after finishing as the NFL’s top-ranked unit and it’s hard to count on Saquon Barkley reaching 2,000 rushing yards again, but look for progress from Jalen Hurts and the passing game — if they stay healthy. That’s why this number is just right. The Eagles have the talent and coaching to win 14 games for the third time in four years.Will they have 21 of 22 starters healthy come January? If you’re expecting some injury variance, then 11 or 12 wins seem like an appropriate prediction — so this might be slightly low — but it’s close enough to not call it “too low.” — Zach Berman
Pittsburgh Steelers
Projected wins: 8.7
Verdict: A little low
It seems like every year we’re asking if this will be Mike Tomlin’s first losing season — and every year the coach finds a way to get to .500 or better, even with Kenny Pickett or Duck Hodges or Mason Rudolph or Mitch Trubisky or Justin Fields or Russell Wilson behind center. Because the Steelers employ the NFL’s highest-paid defense, they have a high floor. (With Jalen Ramsey and Darius Slay solidifying the secondary and first-round pick Derrick Harmon up front, I’d expect the defense to take a step forward this year). The ceiling will be established by Aaron Rodgers and the offense. I’m not expecting the Steelers to be one of the favorites in the AFC, but I think they will again win 9-to-11 games and fight for a wild-card spot in the final weeks of the season. — Mike DeFabo
San Francisco 49ers
Projected wins: 10.4
Verdict: Just right
Though it may depend on if Mock can run a post or a dig route. The 49ers are currently down five receivers, and their overall depth is shaky at best. But the receivers should be back soon and as Mock said, the schedule is very friendly — only one of the first four games and one of the final seven are against teams that had winning records last season. And there aren’t many scary quarterbacks or road games on the entire schedule. The other thing the 49ers have going for them is star power, as Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Trent Williams, Nick Bosa and Fred Warner are healthy and motivated to erase any memories from last year’s 6-11 season. — Vic Tafur
Seattle Seahawks
Projected wins: 8.6
Verdict: Just right
The Seahawks won 10 games in 2024, but to say this is the same team from last season wouldn’t be completely accurate. Seattle won that 10th game against the Rams’ backups (mostly), then replaced its offensive coordinator, quarterback, starting tight end and two of its top three receivers. Did the Seahawks improve? Potentially. The other question is how much they improved, relative to their rivals in a division that, as Mock’s model suggests, should be the best in the NFC. Seattle should exceed this win total projection, but this model understandably doesn’t give much benefit of the doubt because of the questions surrounding the team entering the season. — Michael-Shawn Dugar
How the Tampa Bay Buccaneers manage without injured left tackle Tristan Wirfs will impact the early part of their 2025 schedule. (Kim Klement Neitzel / Imagn Images)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projected wins: 9.8
Verdict: Too low
The Bucs were a 10-win team a year ago, and on paper at least, they are a better one in 2025. There are some unknowns, most notably how the offense will be impacted by Josh Grizzard replacing Liam Coen as offensive coordinator. But if the Bucs can survive the first 11 games of the season (they will be without LT Tristan Wirfs, WR Chris Godwin and WR Jalen McMillan for at least some of those games) it gets easier from there. They can finish strong with a schedule that offers up the Cardinals, Saints, Falcons, Panthers twice and Dolphins to end the regular season. — Dan Pompei
Tennessee Titans
Projected wins: 6.5
Verdict: Too high
It’s not high by much, not with a favorable division to play in and excitement growing over the way No. 1 pick Cam Ward is making gains as the preseason progresses. He should have some fine rookie moments and engineer a surprise win or two. But this is not a team with enough horsepower otherwise to make Ward this year’s Jayden Daniels or C.J. Stroud. The offensive line may be solidified, but the skill group lacks teeth after Calvin Ridley. Jeff Simmons is a force inside and L’Jarius Sneed will try to make the difference at corner that he couldn’t a year ago, but the edge situation is dire. This season is a success if the Titans feel like they’ve found their QB and are no longer the worst team in the league. — Joe Rexrode
Washington Commanders
Projected wins: 8.8
Verdict: Just right
The Commanders are all in after trading for left tackle Laremy Tunsil and receiver Deebo Samuel, and beefing up their defensive line in the offseason. But they also have plenty of uncertainty. The offensive line was in flux for all of training camp because of injuries, and their top two receivers, Terry McLaurin and Noah Brown, were out because of contract and health issues. Washington had the fortune of good health last year, but never is that guaranteed (especially with the NFL’s oldest roster). Add in a brutal travel schedule — two West Coast trips, a game in Madrid and the season finale at the Linc in Philly — and the Commanders could easily have a down year. But then again, they have Jayden Daniels, a player who has so far proved he alone can make all the difference. — Nicki Jhabvala
(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Patrick Smith, Scott Taetsch / Getty Images)
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