It’s that time of the year! Here are my thoughts on how each of the 12 teams in the postseason field stack up against each other. For reference, wRC+ is an all-encompassing offensive stat that weights things like park factor so you can measure a hitter who, for example, plays in an extremely pitcher-friendly park versus one who plays in a hitter-friendly one. 100 is league-average… lower is worse, and higher is better. FIP is fielding independent pitching, and just observes what the pitcher himself can control (like home runs and walks). xERA is basically just measuring the quality of contact a pitcher gives up, and normalizing that onto the ERA scale. Most of the stats I use are gathered from the period after the trade deadline and until the end of the regular season. I tried very hard to balance the actual production from players and what I expect their production to be in the playoffs (relative underperformance by a player vs the norm, how a player has performed in the playoffs in the past). I’m sure that I will almost certainly get a couple of these wrong, as that is how this wonderful sport operates. You can find the full accompanying graphic on the Covering the Corner Twitter page. This ranking is just my opinion, not that of all the Covering the Corner writers.
It’s almost impossible for any organization to lose a pitcher of Zach Wheeler’s caliber and still have one of the best playoff rotations in the league. The Phillies, somehow, managed to pull that off. Since Wheeler went down for the season, the Phillies’ rotation has stepped up in a big way. All three of their remaining frontline starters posted an ERA of 3 or below after Wheeler got injured. Christopher Sanchez, the now-presumptive ace of the staff, posted a 2.96 ERA and 2.15 FIP in 45.2 innings after the injury. Ranger Suarez posted a 2.66 ERA and 2.57 FIP in 40.2 innings. Jesus Luzardo posted a 3.02 ERA and sparkling 2.15 FIP in 44.2 innings. Those three starters are extremely dangerous for any team, but when you include that all three pitchers are lefties? That makes it significantly harder for most teams to deal with. Walker Buehler has been interesting, too, since joining the staff earlier this month. He’s posted a 0.66 ERA in 13.2 innings and, considering his playoff stardom, makes an interesting case to be the fourth starter, if needed. The backend of their bullpen, too, has been much improved since Wheeler’s injury. The addition of Jhoan Duran to this bullpen at the deadline was beyond crucial. He’s posted a 2.18 ERA in 20 innings since joining the Phillies, recording 16 saves. Both Matt Strahm and Tanner Banks have surged in the second half, posting ERAs under 3.00. Given the relatively long leash you can assume manager Rob Thomson will give each of his starters, the Phillies will realistically only need 3 bullpen arms each game. Beyond pitching, the Phillies have arguably the most formidable playoff lineup in the NL. Since the trade deadline, the Phillies have had 10 hitters record 100 or more plate appearances. 8 of them have recorded a wRC+ over 100. 2 of them are widely regarded as some of the best playoff risers in the sport. This lineup is extremely dangerous, especially to many of the teams in the NL who do not have strong enough pitching staffs to balance out the strength of the Phillies’ lineup. Kyle Schwarber is having a career year, and they have Bryce Harper… enough said. The Phillies are extremely well-positioned to finally finish the job they started in 2022.
For those not necessarily inclined to pay close attention to baseball, you’d probably be curious as to why the Mariners are my #2. While they haven’t necessarily experienced the most success (either in the regular season or in the postseason), they are one of the most well-built rosters in MLB. In a, theoretically, weak American League playoff field, the Mariners have as good a chance as they’ll ever have to make a run to the Fall Classic for the first time in franchise history. Let me run you through why. Since the trade deadline, the Mariners have the second-highest team wRC+ among American League playoff teams (120). Their lineup has been bolstered by Cal Raleigh (who hit 60-HR and will be at worst the runner-up in MVP voting), Julio Rodriguez (who, once again, surged in the second half, posting just under 6 fWAR on the season), Randy Arozarena, Jorge Polanco, J.P. Crawford, Eugenio Suarez, etc, etc. Their lineup is stacked. Their bullpen has been insane. 3.72 ERA as a unit. 4 relievers with an ERA under 3, including closer Andres Munoz with his sub-2 ERA and near-12 strikeouts-per-9-innings. Their rotation has, uncharacteristically, been their weakness this year. George Kirby posted an ERA over 4, and only one starter compiled more than 150 innings. That starter, Bryan Woo, cemented himself as an ace this year. But, when the ALDS starts, he won’t have made a start in over two weeks. He was removed from his last start with pectoral tightness. Woo’s health and production are essential to the longevity of the Mariners’ World Series hopes. Gilbert and Castillo were good this year, and they’ll need them to be even better in October. Rightfully, the Mariners are the World Series favorites out of the AL, and they’re a difficult matchup for any of the other 5 teams in the AL playoff race.
Yes, the Dodgers were disappointing this year. Their splashes in free agency last year caused many, including myself, to say that anything other than an 100-win season would be a major disappointment. And yes, somehow, a 90-win season was disappointing. But, I’m betting on talent by putting them here. Their rotation of Snell-Yamamoto-Ohtani-Glasnow could easily be the best rotation in October. All 4 posted ERAs under 3.20, and are going to be relied upon heavily if the Dodgers want to repeat. Their bullpen… is hideous. None of their arms have worked, except for Justin Wrobleski. Tanner Scott, Kirby Yates, Blake Treinen, and Ben Casparius all posted ERAs north of 4. Dreyer, Banda, Vesia, and Wrobleski were all good-to-great, but they’ll need those other aforementioned 4 names to show out. Their offense was great – 3rd best in MLB. They’ll need all of their stars. I’d have ranked the Dodgers 1st if not for their bullpen, and their ceiling is far beyond that of any other playoff team. Despite a relative underperformance, they’re still poised to repeat.
Going into this season many, including myself, were expecting the Yankees to, at best, be a fringe Wild Card team. Losing both one of the best hitters (Juan Soto) and best pitchers (Gerrit Cole) is not often something that an organization can overcome. Nevertheless, the Bronx Bombers showed up this season. They posted, by far, the highest team wRC+ this season (119). The gap between their wRC+ and the second-highest was the same as the difference between the second-highest and the ninth. They hit the most homers by **30** and recorded the highest team batting fWAR. They led the league in ISO (isolated power), SLG, wOBA (weighted on-base average), xwOBA (expected wOBA), and Offensive Value (Batting and Baserunning above average). In short, their offense was dominant. We’ve seen all the commentary about Judge’s postseason performances, but this lineup is as good as it’s ever been in the Judge era. Their pitching is the big question mark. The rotation is interesting – headlined by Fried, Rodon, and Schlittler. But, Fried has a career postseason ERA north of 5, Rodon has one north of 6, and Schlittler is a rookie who made 14 starts. In the regular season, though, Fried and Rodon were beyond impressive. Both almost surpassed the 200 IP mark, and both recorded ERAs either near or below 3.00. The bullpen, too, is shaky. By the names, its ceiling is sky high, but we’ve seen many times what their floor is. A bullpen with Devin Williams, Luke Weaver, David Bednar, and Camilo Doval should not be nearly as inconsistent as it has been. Bednar and Doval were added at the deadline to bolster the bullpen, and since then, the Yankees’ bullpen has posted the 5th-worst ERA in MLB (4.85). Below them? The Nationals, the Rockies, the Marlins, and the Twins. Not great company… in any stat. They’ll need all of them to reach their names’ value for the Yankees to recapture the Commissioner’s Trophy.
The Brewers, and their MLB-best record of 96-65, come in at… 5? Let me explain. The Brewers, like the Mariners, have an unfortunate record in the postseason. (This isn’t to say the Guardians don’t, per se) But, they lack success in the stat most correlated to postseason success – the long ball. Few teams that hit outside the top-9 in homers have ever made the World Series, with the recent exception of the 2023 Diamondbacks. The Brewers made national headlines this year with their summer surge and never looked back. They boast a lineup consisting of 6 qualified hitters with a wRC+ over 100. They are near the top of the league in baserunning and boast one of the best pitching staffs in the league. While the names on their roster aren’t necessarily as eye-popping as those on the Yankees or the Dodgers, they are a remarkably deep team. 6 qualified hitters with a wRC+ over 100, 4 starting pitchers with >100 IP and an ERA under 4, and 5 qualified relievers with an ERA under 3.5. Oh, yeah, and they just activated All-Star closer Trevor Megill from the IL. He recorded 30 saves and posted an ERA under 2.5 in 46 innings. They can beat you in a million different ways, and we’ll see if they finally hold up in October.
The Padres, like the Brewers, excel in depth in their lineup and in their bullpen. In their lineup, they had 6 qualified hitters post a wRC+ over 100. In their bullpen? Mason Miller, Robert Suarez, Jeremiah Estrada, and Adrian Morejon headline the group. All 4 are absurdly talented relievers with eye-popping stuff. Having, literally, the greatest postseason hitter in the history of MLB (minimum 50 PAs) helps. Fernando Tatis has, not a typo, a 251 career wRC+ in the playoffs. 251. Babe Ruth’s career wRC+ was 194 and, in Barry Bonds’ best season, he had a 244 wRC+. That should put into perspective just how dominant Tatis has been in October. He’s easily one of the most electric players in the sport and, despite a down year (relative to his standards), he still has the track record to carry the Padres in October. Their rotation is the big question mark. Middle of the pack in ERA, 23rd in FIP, and 21st in fWAR. They had only 3 starters eclipse 100 innings: Nick Pivetta, Dylan Cease, and Randy Vasquez. Pivetta was, unequivocally, awesome this year. 2.87 ERA in 181.2 innings. Cease was… meh. 4.55 ERA, although he had a 3.56 FIP. They’ll need Cease to find it if they want to get any farther than the Wild Card this year. The lack of depth in their rotation makes the dominance of their bullpen all-the-more important, but as we saw last year, an elite bullpen cannot carry a struggling rotation across the finish line.
The Cubs are very hard to evaluate. At any random point in the season, their strengths and weaknesses have been vastly different. At the start of the year, their offense and rotation were amazing, and their bullpen was… well, bad. In the second half, their rotation was pitiful. Shota Imanaga and Matthew Boyd posted ERAs north of 5 in the month of September. Cade Horton and Jameson Taillon were fantastic, but Horton will miss at least the Wild Card series. Their bullpen, in the second half, has been great! Their offense rebounded from a cold streak in the middle of the season, posting a 115 wRC+ in September. Their date with the Padres will be extremely interesting to watch, as they both have the same strengths and weaknesses. It’s hard to predict what they can do this year, but the pressure is absolutely on them to make a run in what could be Kyle Tucker’s only year in the Windy City.
As we go further down this list, the teams become increasingly difficult to properly evaluate. Many of these teams either rode a fiery first half to a playoff berth or rebounded in the second half to sneak into the playoffs. The Red Sox represent a little bit of both. They struggled early on, but caught fire when MLB.com’s #1 overall prospect got called up. They were a well-above .500 team with Roman Anthony on the roster, but have been a sub-.500 club without him. Anthony will miss, at least, the Wild Card series. Unfortunately, for the Red Sox, they’ll be seeing their archrival in the Yankees in the Wild Card, in a series that could – genuinely – go either way. Their rotation has been good in the second half. Any rotation, though, led by Garrett Crochet will not be an easy one to penetrate. Second-half callup and southpaw Connelly Early has been great, posting a 2.33 ERA in 19.1 innings since the deadline. Lucas Giolito (avert your eyes, CTC faithful) has a 2.83 ERA in 57.1 innings. Crochet has a 3.38 ERA in 64.0 innings, and Brayan Bello has a 3.65 ERA in 56.2. Their bullpen, aside from Aroldis Chapman (0.93 ERA in the 2nd half, 1.17 ERA and .131 BAA overall), has been sneakily elite since the deadline. They’ve had 4 arms record 19 or more innings, all of whom have an ERA under 3. Garrett Whitlock has a 0.42 ERA in 21.2 innings, by the way. Their pitching is not something to balk at. The concern is the offense. It’s been good in the second half, but much of that performance is being carried by Roman Anthony’s 147 wRC+. Rob Refsnyder has been great in a platoon role, and Trevor Story is having a great bounce-back season. (In case you missed it, I named him as someone the Guardians should consider trading for at the deadline. Evidence here) Outside of that, we’ll see.
I know, I know. It seems criminal that the team with the American League’s best record is at 9. And, no, this has nothing to do with that stupid altercation earlier in the season. Their offense has been great all season (well, except for recently). But this isn’t about their offense. Their pitching is as close to as horrid as humanly possible. They have, at best, maybe one reliable playoff starter – Kevin Gausman. But, he just went out at home… in game 162… against a Rays lineup missing Yandy Diaz and Brandon Lowe… and didn’t make it out of the 4th inning. He gave up 4 runs on 8 hits and 2 walks in 3.2 innings. Yes, late-season call-up Trey Yesavage makes their rotation a bit more interesting, but he started the year in low-A. You can only put so much faith into a 21-year-old with 14 innings of MLB experience under his belt. Chris Bassit has been good in the 2nd half, posting a 3.23 ERA in 47 innings… but he landed on the IL. Max Scherzer has been horrible. He’s given 21 runs in his last 5 starts. He hasn’t recorded a quality start in over a month. Their bullpen has been unreliable all year and could very well cost them crucial games in October. Jeff Hoffman has been shaky all season and deadline pickup Louie Varland has a 5.16 ERA since joining the team. Mason Fluharty, Tommy Nance, and Braydon Fisher have been good, but Tommy Nance is the only reliever with the peripherals to back up his performance. Fluharty has a 5.72 FIP and Fisher has both a 4.2 xERA and FIP. I just can’t see this team beating either of the Yankees or the Red Sox, let alone (probably) the Mariners. That’s why they’re ranked 9th. Their performance in the regular season was fantastic, but I just can’t see it holding up in October.
If you haven’t been paying much attention, you might’ve missed the Reds leapfrogging the Mets for the final Wild Card spot in the National League. The Reds are, also, a very difficult team to evaluate. It’s hard to understate the playoff experience Tito brings to a roster that, outside of catcher Jose Trevino, has little playoff experience. Their pitching is as good as anyone’s. Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, and Nick Lodolo are an extremely formidable rotation for any team to face. It’s unfortunate that the Reds drew the Dodgers for their first non-COVID season playoff berth in over a decade. But, crazy things can happen in a 3-game series. Pitching is certainly the strength of this team, as they’ve had 8 pitchers (min. 10 IP) since the deadline pitch to a sub-4 ERA. Connor Phillips, Tony Santillan, and Emilio Pagan have all performed very well in the second half. Their offense is shaky… but interesting. Miguel Andujar has had a fantastic second half with the Reds, posting a 159 wRC+ (highest on the Reds). Will Benson, Sal Stewart, Spencer Steer, and Tyler Stephenson have all posted 100+ wRC+’s. Interestingly, Elly De La Cruz had a 66 wRC+ in the second half. They’ll almost certainly need their cornerstone to get hot to make a run in this NL bracket.
Honestly, it was hard to rank these last 3 teams. You could’ve put the Guardians, Reds, and Tigers (spoiler alert) in any order here at the bottom and I wouldn’t disagree with you. It’s very hard, though, to make a compelling argument for any of these three teams to be above the Blue Jays or Red Sox. The Guardians are maybe the most interesting team here. Worst batting average to ever make the postseason, negative run differential, historically bad offense (for Cleveland baseball). The Tigers completely collapsing in September helped the Guardians make up 12 games in the division in a little under 3 weeks. A historic comeback, no doubt. The problem, for me, as someone who’s watched all 162 is the pitching. This team’s pitching strength came from the depth of its rotation, not the ace-like nature of its frontline starters. Gavin Williams did, however, prove that he is an ace this season. He had a 2.20 ERA in his final 10 starts, averaging just a touch under 6 innings per start. He will be the Guardians’ game 1 starter against Tarik Skubal. Tanner Bibee was better in the second half, posting a 3.96 ERA in 10 starts after the break. In his last 5 starts, he averaged almost 7 innings/start giving up 8 runs in 33 innings, good for a 2.16 ERA. If Bibee can recapture his form from last year, or even just continue the run he’s been on, him and Williams combine for a very formidable rotation combination in any series. Joey Cantillo, too, was excellent in the second half, as I’m sure you all know. He posted a 2.18 ERA in 8 starts after the deadline, averaging over 5 innings a start. It’ll be interesting to see whether him, Slade Cecconi (5.01 ERA since the deadline), or Parker Messick (2.72 ERA since the deadline) get a game 3 start, if necessary. The backend of the Guardians bullpen was also fantastic in the 2nd half. Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, Erik Sabrowski, and – yes – Jakob Junis, all posted sub-3 ERAs. While the backend isn’t nearly as strong as it was last year, the rotation is also significantly better, potentially taking some strain off the unit in the postseason. The offense is hard to evaluate. Since August 1st, they rank 28th in MLB in wRC+. Since September 1st, they rank t-12th with a 101 wRC+. If the September offense is what persists into the playoffs, then this team is much better than the rank I’ve given them. The Guardians had **NINE** hitters (min. 25 PA) record a wRC+ above 100. Austin Hedges had a 132 wRC+, lol. Without David Fry, they’ll need one of Jhonkensy Noel, Johnathan Rodriguez, or Angel Martinez to step up. Their strength is their lineup vs. RHP. Kayfus, Valera, Kwan, Manzardo, and Naylor are all significantly better against RHP. The lineup against LHP is what gives me pause, especially considering they’ll face the best LHP in baseball in game 1. We’ll see.
Like I said before, these last 3 teams are almost impossible to evaluate. If the Tigers play like they did in the first half? They’re easily a top 5 team in the postseason. If they don’t? They won’t make it past the Wild Card. Their offense, rotation, and bullpen all took a step back in the second half. The Tigers had a 97 wRC+ after the deadline, compared to a 106 before it. Their pitching staff had a 3.79 ERA before the deadline (3.52 by SP, 4.16 by RP). After? 4.35 as a collective unit (4.75 by SP, 3.83 by RP). They’ll need Flaherty and Mize to regain their first half forms to make a run in October. They’ll need Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, and Kerry Carpenter to do the same. The backend of the Tigers’ bullpen has been good, but the under-the-surface numbers on non-Finnegan & Vest relievers are not good. Troy Melton (2.52 ERA since deadline) has a 4.3 xERA and 5.82 FIP. Rafael Montero (2.86 ERA) has a respectable 3.24 xERA, but a 4.5 FIP. The Tigers will very badly need their entire pitching staff outside of Kyle Finnegan and Tarik Skubal to step up. They might not need it in the ALWC, but they will almost certainly need it to avoid a sweep in the ALDS.
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