The FedEx Cup playoffs are ready to get underway and, fittingly, we start with the top 70 from the season-long standings heading to TPC Southwind for the FedEx St. Jude Championship in Memphis, Tenn. The longtime PGA Tour venue is a tremendous start for golf’s postseason, even if Rory McIlroy doesn’t feel like spending the second weekend of August in the Memphis heat, and should deliver a tremendous event for fans to enjoy.
TPC Southwind was designed by Ron Prichard and opened in 1988. It has hosted a PGA Tour event every year since 1989 and became the opening event of the FedEx Cup playoffs in 2022, replacing the Northern Trust. The course is a par-70 measuring 7,244 yards and offers a thorough examination of each player’s game. Ball striking on this positional tract will be crucial, but the same is true for the short game and putting on some quick Bermuda greens that can be mighty tricky, especially when, again, we’re talking about the grind of a tournament in mid-August being played in Memphis.
With 69 players in the field and no cut, things are going to get interesting. But what should golf bettors be looking for to try and identify a winner this week, beyond the name “Scottie Scheffler?” That’s where we’re coming in to help.
Strokes-gained tee-to-green over the last 24 rounds
Southwind is going to test the overall game of every player, which is one of the beautiful things about this tournament. While putting is also a factor in that, we have to start with the tee-to-green game and who has been showing out in that capacity.
- Scottie Scheffler (2.48)
- Chris Gotterup (1.71)
- Kurt Kitayama (1.70)
- Si Woo Kim (1.33)
- Matt Fitzpatrick (1.27)
Strokes-gained approach over the last 24 rounds
As is often the case with me, though, I’m putting an extra premium on approach play when it comes to ball striking because, well, it can make putting and scoring a whole lot easier. So almost just as heavily as with the tee-to-green play, we’re honing in more on approach.
- Scottie Scheffler (1.60)
- Shane Lowry (1.08)
- Kurt Kitayama (1.04)
- Viktor Hovland (0.99)
- Akshay Bhatia (0.92)
Strokes-gained total at TPC Southwind, East Lake, TPC Sawgrass and TPC Scottsdale in last 5 years
Because of the positional and ball-striking test that’ll be on display in Memphis, it only makes sense to look at players who have historically had success not only at Southwind, but at similarly difficult tests that demand a lot of the same things, including a lot of Bermuda greens as well.
- Scottie Scheffler (1.76)
- Justin Thomas (1.51)
- Daniel Berger (1.33)
- Xander Schauffele (1.28)
- Bud Cauley (1.21)
Overall proximity from 150-200 yards in the last 24 rounds
Back on approach, the most important range this week will be 150-200 yards out on approach. So we wrap up our most crucial stats for the week by seeing who has specifically been quite impressive from that range when coming into the green, both from the fairway and the rough, over their last several tournaments.
- Si Woo Kim (28.5 feet)
- Hideki Matsuayam (28.6)
- Scottie Scheffler (30.0)
- Viktor Hovland (30.1)
- Shane Lowry (30.2)
The model this week for the FedEx St. Jude Championship has a particular emphasis on ball-striking overall but there are other factors that need to be weighed as well. We’re starting with the strokes-gained tee-to-green over the last 24 rounds (25%), strokes-gained approach over the last 24 rounds (20%), strokes-gained total in the last five years at TPC Southwind and other comparable courses (15%), overall proximity from 150-200 yards in the last 24 rounds (10%), strokes-gained putting on fast Bermuda greens in the last 36 rounds (10%), good-drive percentage in the last 36 rounds (7.5%), scrambling percentage in the last 36 rounds (7.5%), fairway proximity from 125-150 yards (2.5%) and rough proximity from 125-150 yards (2.5%) to round us out. Not surprisingly, that leaves us with Scottie Scheffler at the top of our model, but there’s plenty more to like in the rest of the top 10 that we get thrown back at us with these numbers baked in.
- Scottie Scheffler
- Patrick Cantlay
- Viktor Hovland
- Russell Henley
- Kurt Kitayama
- Shane Lowry
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Matt Fitzpatrick
- Tommy Fleetwood
- Sam Burns
Viktor Hovland +3500 (DraftKings)
Viktor Hovland has played the FedEx St. Jude Championship in each of the last five years and has improved his finish each time. That includes finishing T13 in Memphis in 2023 and then tying as the runner-up last year. There’s only one more spot to go to improve and that would be to win the first event of the playoffs this year.
The good news is that Hovland is in the form to do just that. Over his last 12 rounds, despite losing strokes at the British Open while missing the cut, he’s gaining 1.40 strokes on approach and ranks fourth in strokes-gained approach over the last 24 rounds. Even better, you love to see him in the top 5 of the 150-200 yards proximity bucket as well, proving that his game should be well-suited for this setup. If there’s a concern with Hovland, it’s always his short game. However, he lost strokes around the green in 2024 (0.28 per round) and still tied for second. Furthermore, he’s actually a top-30 putter in the field on fast Bermuda greens.
I’ve said it before and I’m standing by it that Hovland has been playing too well with his ball striking not to find his way into a win sooner rather than later. For a guy who has made plenty of hay in big events, including the playoffs, I like where he’s at coming into Memphis.
Hideki Matsuyama +3500 (DraftKings)
Who did Hovland finish runner-up to last year at TPC Southwind? That would be Hideki Matsuyama. He’s another guy who you have to like at this event with as his win was preceded by a T16 in 2023 and a T2 in 2021. This is a place that clearly suits him and where he could very well go back-to-back with the form he’s displayed of late.
Matsuyama could best be described as lurking over the past few months. He was T13 at the Rocket Classic, T16 at the Open and T19 at the Wyndham. While that might not be overly impressive, it stands out that he’s both gained 1.33 strokes on approach and 0.64 strokes on the greens over those finishes. He’s seventh in the field in strokes-gained approach over the last 24 rounds and you can see that he’s second in proximity from the key range this week.
The driver has been a little bit suspect for Matsuyama, which could be worrisome. But Hideki has an uncanny ability to fix something like that and dominate, and there are signs that such a week could be on deck in Memphis.
Lucas Glover +9000 (FanDuel)
Lucas Glover ultimately only ended up at 14th in our model and a big reason for that is that he’s 59th in strokes-gained putting on fast Bermuda greens historically. The one place where that’s not been an issue for him in the past few years, however, has been at TPC Southwind, where he won in 2023 and finished T3 the year prior to that. Crucially, he gained more than 0.75 strokes putting per round in each of those tournaments.
Now he returns to a place that obviously suits his eye, the form is also there for Glover overall. He’s been more dialed with the driver of late, which has led to him being seventh in strokes-gained tee-to-green over the last 24 rounds. He’s also 10th in strokes-gained approach over that same span and is top 25 in proximity from 150-200 yards. The putting is quite literally the only aspect of the model where he’s not at least in the top 40 of the field and he’s in the Top 25 of all but three metrics (strokes-gained putting, scrambling, rough proximity).
This is very much a value play because the recent form and the history at the FedEx St. Jude suggest that Glover should be much shorter on the odds board than 90-1. We’ll take a swing there, though, because you have to like what you see with all of this.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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