Average draft position: Round 1 (RB5)
You’re excited about Ashton Jeanty. I’m excited about Ashton Jeanty. We’re all excited about Ashton Jeanty. But folks, let’s keep our wits about us. No, this isn’t going to be a tired don’t overdraft a rookie take. It’s a much more nuanced don’t overdraft a Raider take.
Based on ADP, nine of the first 12 running backs being selected in fantasy drafts played in top-15 scoring offenses last year. Aside from Jeanty, the two who did not play in top-15 scoring offenses are Jonathan Taylor (RB9; Colts — 17th in scoring) and Kyren Williams (RB11; Rams — 20th in scoring). You could easily make the case that Williams and the Rams would have scored more if they didn’t have to spend a month without Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp.
Meanwhile, the Raiders last year were the NFL’s fourth-lowest scoring outfit. They also had the fourth-most pass attempts of any team. Those are poor ingredients for a fantasy running back, even with an improved QB situation in Las Vegas. Jeanty will get plenty of touches over the course of the season, but he could also be a victim of game scripts way more than a top-five back should be.
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